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. 2021 Mar 31;7(1):e001638. doi: 10.1136/rmdopen-2021-001638

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Probability curves for the post-treatment likelihood of clinical improvement and survival, plotted against different (virtual) pretreatment likelihoods. Post-treatment likelihood is the product of prior likelihood (expressed as odds) and OR for the natural indirect effects (OR_NIE), as determined in table 2. The diagonal reflects the situation of zero treatment effect. Curves above the diagonal reflect a beneficial effect on outcome (Y) by treatment (do(X)=1). Pretreatment likelihood for 14-day clinical improvement, 30-day survival and 90-day survival, as observed in period 1 of the CHIC study, is marked with arrows in the figure. The number needed to treat (NNT) was calculated for these rates actually observed in the CHIC study by taking the reciprocal of the difference between pretreatment and post-treatment likelihood (NNT=1/absolute risk reduction). CHIC, COVID-19 High-intensity Immunosuppression in Cytokine storm syndrome.