Table 2.
Performance and clinical utility measurements for 30-day in-hospital mortality and 7-day intensive care unit admission
| Score | AUC (95% CI) | Brier score | Threshold (≥) | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | LR+ (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | LR–(95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day in-hospital mortality | |||||||||
| CURB | 0.71 (0.68–0.74) | 0.162 | 1 | 0.96 (0.93–0.98) | 0.28 (0.25–0.3) | 0.29 (0.26–0.32) | 1.32 (1.27–1.39) | 0.95 (0.93–0.98) | 0.16 (0.08–0.25) |
| CURB65 | 0.74 (0.72–0.77) | 0.154 | 2 | 0.84 (0.8–0.88) | 0.53 (0.5–0.56) | 0.35 (0.32–0.39) | 1.78 (1.65–1.93) | 0.92 (0.89–0.94) | 0.3 (0.22–0.38) |
| QSOFA | 0.63 (0.6–0.66) | 0.171 | 2 | 0.34 (0.29–0.39) | 0.86 (0.83–0.88) | 0.42 (0.36–0.48) | 2.37 (1.91–2.96) | 0.81 (0.78–0.83) | 0.77 (0.7–0.83) |
| PSI | 0.79 (0.77–0.82) | 0.148 | 4 | 0.9 (0.86–0.93) | 0.49 (0.46–0.52) | 0.35 (0.32–0.38) | 1.76 (1.65–1.89) | 0.94 (0.92–0.96) | 0.21 (0.14–0.28) |
| SMART COP | 0.71 (0.68–0.74) | 0.161 | 3 | 0.89 (0.85–0.92) | 0.32 (0.3–0.35) | 0.29 (0.26–0.32) | 1.31 (1.24–1.39) | 0.9 (0.87–0.93) | 0.35 (0.24–0.46) |
| IDSA/ATS Minor | 0.73 (0.7–0.76) | 0.157 | 3 | 0.82 (0.78–0.86) | 0.53 (0.5–0.56) | 0.35 (0.31–0.38) | 1.76 (1.62–1.9) | 0.91 (0.88–0.93) | 0.33 (0.25–0.41) |
| REA-ICU | 0.69 (0.65–0.72) | 0.166 | 7 | 0.8 (0.76–0.85) | 0.44 (0.4–0.47) | 0.3 (0.27–0.33) | 1.42 (1.31–1.53) | 0.88 (0.85–0.9) | 0.46 (0.36–0.57) |
| SCAP | 0.74 (0.71–0.77) | 0.159 | 10 | 0.94 (0.92–0.97) | 0.28 (0.25–0.31) | 0.29 (0.26–0.31) | 1.31 (1.26–1.38) | 0.94 (0.91–0.97) | 0.2 (0.11–0.31) |
| COVID GRAM | 0.77 (0.75–0.8) | 0.147 | 0.1 | 0.91 (0.88–0.94) | 0.37 (0.35–0.4) | 0.31 (0.28–0.34) | 1.45 (1.37–1.55) | 0.93 (0.91–0.95) | 0.24 (0.16–0.34) |
| CALL | 0.71 (0.68–0.74) | 0.162 | 6 | 0.99 (0.98–1) | 0.09 (0.08–0.11) | 0.25 (0.23–0.27) | 1.09 (1.07–1.12) | 0.97 (0.93–1) | 0.1 (0–0.23) |
| 4C | 0.78 (0.75–0.81) | 0.146 | 4 | 0.99 (0.98–1) | 0.09 (0.07–0.1) | 0.25 (0.23–0.27) | 1.09 (1.06–1.11) | 0.97 (0.93–1) | 0.11 (0–0.27) |
| 7-day intensive care unit admission | |||||||||
| CURB | 0.59 (0.55–0.62) | 0.226 | 1 | 0.8 (0.76–0.84) | 0.29 (0.26–0.32) | 0.39 (0.36–0.42) | 1.13 (1.05–1.2) | 0.72 (0.67–0.78) | 0.69 (0.54–0.86) |
| CURB65 | 0.54 (0.51–0.58) | 0.229 | 2 | 0.55 (0.49–0.6) | 0.52 (0.48–0.55) | 0.39 (0.35–0.43) | 1.13 (1–1.27) | 0.67 (0.63–0.71) | 0.88 (0.77–1) |
| QSOFA | 0.59 (0.56–0.62) | 0.225 | 2 | 0.13 (0.1–0.16) | 0.9 (0.88–0.92) | 0.43 (0.34–0.52) | 1.32 (0.92–1.83) | 0.65 (0.62–0.68) | 0.96 (0.92–1.01) |
| PSI | 0.52 (0.49–0.56) | 0.230 | 4 | 0.58 (0.53–0.62) | 0.47 (0.44–0.51) | 0.38 (0.34–0.42) | 1.09 (0.98–1.21) | 0.66 (0.62–0.7) | 0.9 (0.77–1.02) |
| SMART COP | 0.64 (0.61–0.67) | 0.218 | 3 | 0.8 (0.77–0.84) | 0.39 (0.36–0.43) | 0.43 (0.39–0.46) | 1.33 (1.23–1.44) | 0.78 (0.74–0.83) | 0.5 (0.39–0.61) |
| IDSA/ATS Minor | 0.6 (0.57–0.64) | 0.224 | 3 | 0.6 (0.55–0.65) | 0.57 (0.54–0.61) | 0.44 (0.4–0.48) | 1.41 (1.25–1.57) | 0.72 (0.68–0.75) | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) |
| REA-ICU | 0.6 (0.56–0.63) | 0.224 | 7 | 0.65 (0.6–0.7) | 0.49 (0.45–0.52) | 0.42 (0.38–0.46) | 1.27 (1.14–1.39) | 0.71 (0.67–0.75) | 0.72 (0.62–0.84) |
| SCAP | 0.6 (0.57–0.63) | 0.225 | 10 | 0.81 (0.77–0.85) | 0.32 (0.28–0.35) | 0.4 (0.37–0.44) | 1.19 (1.11–1.27) | 0.75 (0.7–0.8) | 0.59 (0.46–0.73) |
| COVID GRAM | 0.52 (0.48–0.55) | 0.231 | 0.1 | 0.66 (0.62–0.71) | 0.36 (0.33–0.4) | 0.37 (0.34–0.4) | 1.04 (0.95–1.14) | 0.66 (0.61–0.7) | 0.93 (0.78–1.1) |
| CALL | 0.52 (0.49–0.56) | 0.230 | 6 | 0.95 (0.92–0.97) | 0.09 (0.07–0.11) | 0.37 (0.34–0.4) | 1.04 (1.01–1.08) | 0.75 (0.65–0.83) | 0.6 (0.36–0.91) |
| 4C | 0.55 (0.52–0.59) | 0.229 | 4 | 0.95 (0.93–0.97) | 0.1 (0.08–0.12) | 0.37 (0.34–0.4) | 1.05 (1.02–1.09) | 0.77 (0.69–0.86) | 0.52 (0.31–0.78) |
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR–, negative likelihood ratio; NA, not applicable; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.