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. 2021 Apr 1;11:7380. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86265-4

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Instantaneous reproductive number estimates for different stages of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curve: a index (Singapore), b takeoff (Japan), c exponential (South Korea), d decline (China) in short (2 days) and standard (7 days) serial interval. Decelerating stage of epidemic curve results to a reproductive number lower than 2 for both serial intervals, epidemic curve with multiple introductions yields 2-day serial interval with higher reproductive number and exponential serial interval yields higher reproductive number for the 7-day serial interval. The surge in the epidemic curve of China corresponds to the alteration of the case definition of SARS-CoV-2 by broadening confirmed cases with pneumonia confirmed with a computed tomography scan. South Korea’s higher reproductive number is due to cryptic transmission associated with a secretive cult with altered health seeking behavior.