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. 2021 Apr 1;11:7380. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86265-4

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Epicurve estimates with different serial intervals. Panel Index represents Epicurves and instantaneous R values for index stage countries using 2- and 7-day serial interval. Panel takeoff Global dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 using instantaneous estimate of reproductive number with 2-day serial interval. Under preincubation period infectivity scenario, globally increasing R > 2. Italy’s R = 8 is highest due to late detection of infection clusters. This higher R estimate is due to a huge bump in cases combined with diagnostic gap of low-level incidence. The same surge dynamics is seen in South Korea. Global dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 using instantaneous estimate of reproductive number with 7-day serial interval. Italy’s R value inflates to 57 with the 7-day serial interval assumption and overlaps with the lower threshold of 2-day serial interval R estimate. This estimation depicts a decreasing pattern for countries multiple introductions like Singapore, Hong Kong.