Fig. 2.

Predictions between April 1 and October 31, 2020, and 90% prediction intervals between two significant dates: June 15 and September 7, 2020. Predictions and intervals are for the 7-day average of new cases in the following week in Austria. Relevant event dates are given as vertical, dashed lines and are described in Table 1. The Epi∗ predictions consistently lag behind the observed values, whereas the other methods overshoot in the peaks due to momentum. Models with superspreading produce predictions intervals 2–3 times as wide as those without and achieve better coverage.