Fig. 3.

Credible intervals for R in Austria. The momentum and generation model predictions are consistently slightly higher than those of Epi∗. They also produce credible intervals that are 2–3 times as wide. Relevant event dates are given as vertical, dashed lines and are described in Table 1. Observe that R becomes indistinguishable from 1 using our models around the time when lockdown restrictions begin to be removed.