Fig 2.

Model Specification: y_c,t,s are the observed TFR, f_c,t are the unknown TFR values, θ_c are the country-specific parameters and ψ are the global parameters. Detailed explanation of these parameters can be found in this section previously and the complete specification can be found also in the supplementary materials Section 1. Here, t₁, t₂, t₃ are representative of some arbitrary time points between [t₀, t₀ + 5], [t₀ + 5, t₀ + 10], [t₀ + 10, t₀ + 15] respectively.