Table 2:
Registered to Vote (as of June 22, 2010)
| N | Control Group Mean | Effect of Lottery Selection | First Stage | Effect of Medicaid Coverage | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Panel A: Overall and by Party Affiliation | ||||||
| Overall | 74922 | 42.032 | 0.511 (0.424) | 0.238 (0.004) | 2.149 (1.782) | 0.228 |
| Registered as a Democrat | 74922 | 19.168 | 0.222 (0.328) | 0.238 (0.004) | 0.933 (1.381) | 0.499 |
| Registered as a Republican | 74922 | 7.757 | 0.115 (0.241) | 0.238 (0.004) | 0.481 (1.015) | 0.635 |
| Registered with another political party | 74922 | 3.603 | −0.038 (0.152) | 0.238 (0.004) | −0.160 (0.640) | 0.803 |
| Registered as a non-affiliated voter | 74922 | 11.504 | 0.213 (0.269) | 0.238 (0.004) | 0.894 (1.129) | 0.429 |
| Panel B: By Category | ||||||
| Gender | ||||||
| Female | 41249 | 44.851 | 0.272 (0.543) | 0.226 (0.005) | 1.206 (2.408) | 0.617 |
| Male | 33673 | 38.464 | 0.922 (0.589) | 0.254 (0.005) | 3.623 (2.314) | 0.117 |
| Age | ||||||
| Ages 19–49 | 54814 | 39.441 | 0.309 (0.487) | 0.231 (0.004) | 1.338 (2.107) | 0.525 |
| Ages 50–64 | 20108 | 48.972 | 1.170 (0.817) | 0.256 (0.007) | 4.568 (3.194) | 0.153 |
| English-language lottery materials | ||||||
| No | 6440 | 10.261 | 0.455 (0.911) | 0.164 (0.014) | 2.778 (5.570) | 0.618 |
| Yes | 68482 | 44.751 | 0.367 (0.441) | 0.245 (0.004) | 1.498 (1.802) | 0.406 |
| Zip in a Democratic county (2008) | ||||||
| No | 26723 | 41.688 | −0.118 (0.713) | 0.248 (0.006) | −0.478 (2.880) | 0.868 |
| Yes | 48199 | 42.219 | 0.858 (0.526) | 0.232 (0.005) | 3.693 (2.262) | 0.103 |
Notes: All data are from the 2010 data pull, and all analyses are weighted to account for a series of new Medicaid lottery draws that began in Fall 2009, using weights that account for lottery selection through June 1, 2010. First stage variable is an indicator for Medicaid coverage, defined as being on Medicaid at any point from the first lottery notification through June 1, 2010. Column (3) shows the intent-to-treat estimates from Equation 1; column (4) shows the first stage estimates from Equation 3; column (5) shows the IV estimates of the impact of Medicaid coverage using the lottery as an instrument for Medicaid from Equation 2. All analyses include controls for household size, and adjust the standard errors for household clusters.