Table 3:
Prognostic Utility of GDF-15
| Model | C without GDF-15 | C with GDF-15 | Overall NRI | NRI for events | NRI for non-events | IDI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-cause death | ||||||
| Clinical model | 0.704 (0.659, 0.749) | 0.735 (0.690, 0.779) | 0.298 (0.081, 0.516) | 0.044 (−0.131, 0.227) | 0.254 (0.155, 0.342) | 0.043 (0.025, 0.062) |
| Clinical model + CPX | 0.751 (0.709, 0.794) | 0.759 (0.717, 0.801) | 0.150 (−0.071, 0.377) | −0.029 (−0.201, 0.150) | 0.179 (0.087, 0.272) | 0.009 (−0.002, 0.019) |
| Clinical model + biomarkers | 0.755 (0.713, 0.797) | 0.759 (0.717, 0.801) | 0.105 (−0.124, 0.339) | 0.058 (−0.116, 0.236) | 0.046 (−0.050, 0.140) | 0.004 (−0.005, 0.011) |
| Clinical model + biomarkers + CPX | 0.770 (0.730, 0.810) | 0.772 (0.732, 0.812) | −0.038 (−0.263, 0.192) | −0.044 (−0.217, 0.136) | 0.006 (−0.099, 0.106) | −0.001 (−0.005, 0.004) |
| All-cause death or hospitalization | ||||||
| Clinical model | 0.612 (0.584, 0.640) | 0.623 (0.595, 0.650) | 0.090 (−0.242, 0.378) | −0.030 (−0.122, 0.066) | 0.120 (−0.164, 0.369) | 0.008 (0.002, 0.015) |
| Clinical model + CPX | 0.637 (0.610, 0.664) | 0.640 (0.613, 0.668) | −0.181 (−0.500, 0.111) | −0.101 (−0.190, −0.002) | −0.080 (−0.379, 0.170) | 0.002 (−0.002, 0.006) |
| Clinical model + biomarkers | 0.636 (0.609, 0.663) | 0.639 (0.612, 0.666) | −0.272 (−0.632, 0.039) | −0.105 (−0.193, −0.009) | −0.168 (−0.490, 0.099) | −0.004 (−0.007, −0.002) |
| Clinical model + biomarkers + CPX | 0.649 (0.623, 0.676) | 0.650 (0.623, 0.676) | −0.404 (−0.737, −0.102) | −0.144 (−0.234, −0.046) | −0.260 (−0.569, −0.007) | 0.000 (−0.001, 0.000) |
| CV death or HF hospitalization | ||||||
| Clinical model | 0.715 (0.680, 0.749) | 0.725 (0.691, 0.759) | 0.111 (−0.086, 0.317) | 0.013 (−0.113, 0.155) | 0.098 (−0.015, 0.219) | 0.007 (0.000, 0.015) |
| Clinical model + CPX | 0.730 (0.696, 0.764) | 0.733 (0.700, 0.767) | 0.028 (−0.168, 0.238) | −0.028 (−0.159, 0.118) | 0.056 (−0.061, 0.177) | 0.000 (−0.005, 0.004) |
| Clinical model + biomarkers | 0.752 (0.720, 0.784) | 0.752 (0.719, 0.784) | −0.063 (−0.250, 0.144) | −0.070 (−0.201, 0.079) | 0.007 (−0.106, 0.123) | −0.001 (−0.003, 0.000) |
| Clinical model + biomarkers + CPX | 0.755 (0.723, 0.787) | 0.756 (0.723, 0.788) | −0.084 (−0.281, 0.123) | −0.091 (−0.230, 0.057) | 0.007 (−0.106, 0.123) | −0.001 (−0.001, 0.000) |
CV: cardiovascular; HF: heart failure; CPX: cardiopulmonary exercise stress testing; NRI net reclassification index; IDI integrated discriminatory improvement
Bolded text highlights the results where by GDF-15 significantly increases the C-statistic, overall NRI, and IDI.