Table 1.
Association between survival and CTC status and trajectory
| Datasets and modelsa | No. (%)b | PFS |
OS |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P | HR (95% CI) | P | ||
| CALGB 40502 | |||||
| Baseline CTCs (n = 469) | |||||
| CTC− | 219 (46.7) | Reference | Reference | ||
| CTC+ | 250 (53.3) | 1.58 (1.28 to 1.6) | <.001 | 1.90 (1.51 to 2.39) | <.001 |
| Change in CTC status (baseline to end of cycle 1) (n = 469) | |||||
| CTC−CTC− | 214 (45.6) | Reference | Reference | ||
| CTC+CTC− | 162 (34.5) | 1.34 (1.05 to 1.69) | .02 | 1.51 (1.16 to 1.95) | .002 |
| CTC−CTC+ | 5 (1.1) | 2.15 (0.77 to 6.01) | .14 | 2.88 (1.04 to 7.96) | .04 |
| CTC+CTC+ | 88 (18.8) | 2.48(1.86 to 3.32) | <.001 | 3.65 (2.68 to 4.98) | <.001 |
| tCTC (n = 469) | |||||
| tCTCneg | 267 (56.9) | Reference | Reference | ||
| tCTClo | 111 (23.7) | 1.89 (1.46 to 2.45) | <.001 | 2.25 (1.71 to 2.98) | <.001 |
| tCTCmid | 68 (14.5) | 2.48 (1.79 to 3.43) | <.001 | 3.91 (2.76 to 5.53) | <.001 |
| tCTChi | 23 (4.9) | 3.04 (1.85 to 4.98) | <.001 | 7.54( 4.45 to 12.79) | <.001 |
| EPAC | |||||
| tCTC (n = 1856)c | |||||
| tCTCneg | 892 (48.1) | Reference | Reference | ||
| tCTClo | 627 (33.8) | 1.57 (1.38 to 1.79) | <.001 | 2.49 (2.11 to 2.95) | <.001 |
| tCTCmid | 179 (9.6) | 1.94 (1.59 to 2.36) | <.001 | 3.02 (2.38 to 3.83) | <.001 |
| tCTChi | 158 (8.5) | 3.41 (2.78 to 4.17) | <.001 | 6.55( 5.10 to 8.40) | <.001 |
| tCTC, first line only (n = 776)d | |||||
| tCTCneg | 380 (49.0) | Reference | Reference | ||
| tCTClo | 281 (36.2) | 1.73 (1.40 to 2.12) | <.001 | 3.43 (2.53 to 4.64) | <.001 |
| tCTCmid | 64 (8.2) | 2.43 (1.77 to 3.33) | <.001 | 3.61 (2.34 to 5.57) | <.001 |
| tCTChi | 51 (6.6) | 3.66 (2.58 to 5.18) | <.001 | 6.94 (4.32 to 11.15) | <.001 |
| tCTC, single bCTC only (n = 916) | |||||
| tCTCneg | 487 (53.2) | Reference | Reference | ||
| tCTClo | 251 (27.4) | 1.67 (1.36 to 2.05) | <.001 | 2.50 (2.0 to 3.2) | <.001 |
| tCTCmid | 85 (9.3) | 2.02 (1.49 to 2.73) | <.001 | 2.6 (1.8 to 3.7) | <.001 |
| tCTChi | 93 (10.2) | 3.61 (2.70 to 4.82) | <.001 | 6.2 (4.4 to 8.7) | <.001 |
A summary of the multivariable Cox regression analysis to determine correlation between survival in the following CTC models: CTC status at baseline (see Supplementary Table 4, available online), combined CTC status at baseline and end of cycle 1 (see Supplementary Table 5, available online), tCTC groups in CALGB 40502 (see Supplementary Table 6, available online), and the Bidard et al. pooled analysis (EPAC) (2) (see Supplementary Tables 8-10, available online). bCTC = baseline circulating tumor cell; CALGB = Cancer and Leukemia Group B; CI = confidence interval; CTC = circulating tumor cell; EPAC = European Pooled Analysis of individual CTC; HR = hazard ratio; OS = overall survival; PFS = progression-free survival; tCTC = circulating tumor cell trajectory; tCTChi = high trajectory for circulating tumor cells; tCTClo = low trajectory for circulating tumor cells; tCTCmid = intermediate trajectory for circulating tumor cells; tCTCneg = negative trajectory for circulating tumor cells.
Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.
n = 1748 for PFS analysis as 108 patients had missing data: tCTCneg = 847 (48.5%); tCTClo = 592 (33.9%); tCTCmid = 165 (9.4%); tCTChi = 144 (8.2%).
n = 773 for PFS analysis as 3 patients had missing data: tCTCneg = 379 (49.0%); tCTClo = 280 (36.2%); tCTCmid = 63 (8.2%); tCTChi = 51 (6.6%).