Table 2.
Model selection by AIC analysis
| Dataset and endpoints | AIC scores of CTC modelsa |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| bCTC |
cCTC |
tCTC |
|
| Baseline CTC | Change in CTC | tCTC | |
| CALGB 40502 (n = 469) | |||
| Progression-free survival | 4073.2 | 4059.6 | 4048.8b |
| Overall survival | 3502.9 | 3475.0 | 3446.5b |
| EPAC | |||
| ≥1 CTC time point (n = 1856) | |||
| Progression-free survival | 11 108.0 | 11 098.9 | 11 069.5b |
| Overall survival | 6742.9 | 6734.8 | 6679.3b |
| First line patients only (n = 776) | |||
| Progression-free survival | 4167.1 | 4166.5 | 4157.8b |
| Overall survival | 2017.8 | 2018.6 | 1988.2b |
| Baseline CTC only (n = 916) | |||
| Progression-free survival | 2933.1 | n/a | 2907.1b |
| Overall survival | 4332.0 | n/a | 4314.2b |
a
The model with the best fit, that is, with the lowest AIC score (b), indicates best performance for predicting survival. AIC = Akaike information criterion; CALGB = Cancer and Leukemia Group B; cCTC = combined circulating tumor cell status at baseline and end of first cycle of therapy; CTC = circulating tumor cell; EPAC = European Pooled Analysis of individual CTC; n/a = not applicable; tCTC= circulating tumor cell trajectory.
b
Lowest AIC score.