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. 2021 Apr 6;11:7534. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86811-0

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Health outcome risks and logistical needs for fictional counties. In the scatterplots, each point indicates (A) the age-adjusted infection fatality ratio and (B) risk of ICU admission given hospitalization by mean age for a county within the United States. Data for the nine fictional counties in our vignette is marked by magenta triangles. (C) The heat maps display county-level ICU bed needs, shaded according to the log ratio above or below the assumed ICU bed capacity (secondary y-axis) in each county (primary y-axis) for three example intervention scenarios (panels). The salmon pink shading indicates periods of time where ICU bed needs exceed capacity in the fictional counties.