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. 2021 Apr 6;11:7534. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86811-0

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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County-level COVID-19 risk for three scenarios (Uncontrolled, Pulsed, Checker) in the fictional Location X. Choropleths for model outcomes on June 1, 2020 of the (A–C) cumulative infection rate per 10,000 population and (D–F) number of patients currently admitted to the ICU per 10,000 population for the Uncontrolled, Social Distancing Pulsed, and Social Distancing Checker intervention scenarios. County-level variation in attack rates can arise from differences in risk of importation, mobility patterns connecting subdivisions, and differences in non-pharmaceutical interventions applied in each location. If location-specific health outcome risks are specified (as are age-standardized health outcome risks in this example), this may serve as another source of county-level variation.