Table 1.

Reference data used for constructing the model.

Demographics		Data (%)	Notes
Italy
	Older than 65 years	22.60	Source: Eurostat [20]
	Beds for seriously ill patients	0.26	Source: OECDa [21]
	Recovery rate	76.89	Source: World Health Organization [22]
	Case-fatality rate	14.55	Source: World Health Organization [22]
	Seriously ill	2.40	Source: Ministero della Salute [23]
	Hospitalization rate	25.40	Source: Ministero della Salute [23]
	Not seriously ill	74.60	Source: Ministero della Salute [23]
Germany
	Older than 65 years	21.40	Source: Eurostat [20]
	Beds for seriously ill patients	0.60	Source: OECD [24]
	Recovery rate	91.15	Source: World Health Organization [25]
	Case-fatality rate	4.67	Source: World Health Organization [25]
	Seriously ill	1.48	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Hospitalization rate	6.20	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Not seriously ill	92.30	Source: Worldometer [26]
Sweden
	Older than 65 years	19.80	Source: Eurostat [20]
	Beds for seriously ill patients	0.20	Source: OECD [27]
	Recovery rate	12.74	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Case-fatality rate	9.02	Source: World Health Organization [28]
	Seriously ill	2.55	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Hospitalization rate	25.68	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Not seriously ill	69.30	Source: Worldometer [26]
Brazil
	Older than 65 years	8.60	Source: CIAb [29]
	Beds for seriously ill patients	0.19	Source: AMIBc [30]
	Recovery rate	49.81	Source: World Health Organization [31]
	Case-fatality rate	4.65	Source: World Health Organization [31]
	Seriously ill	2.00	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Hospitalization rate	8.00	Source: Worldometer [26]
	Not seriously ill	90.00	Source: Worldometer [26]

^aOECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

^bCIA: Central Intelligence Agency.

^cAMIB: Associação Medicina Intensiva Brasileira.