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. 2021 Mar 8;5:2399202620980303. doi: 10.1177/2399202620980303

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© The Author(s) 2021

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).

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Figure 2. — Monthly SF prevalence across medicine quality testing scenarios.

HPLC: high-performance liquid chromatography; PADs/aPADs: paper analytical devices/antibiotic paper analytical devices; SF: substandard or falsified.

The figure shows average monthly prevalence of SF Amoxicillin across 10,000 model runs. Dips demonstrate months where recalls of SF amoxicillin were simulated. After removal, SF prevalence can rebuild as new batches enter the market each month.