Figure 3.

Annual incremental investment and returns (including productivity) across medicine quality testing scenarios.

HPLC: high-performance liquid chromatography; PADs/aPADs: paper analytical devices/antibiotic paper analytical devices; SF: substandard or falsified.

The model was run 10,000 times while varying input parameters based on distributions in Table 1. The HPLC and expedited HPLC scenarios closely overlap, as the testing costs for both scenarios are identical and yielded comparable impact on SF prevalence (Figure 2). The model consistently showed that PADs/aPADs scenario resulted in lower costs and greater benefits than HPLC alone.