TABLE 2.
Forecast results of breast cancer from June 2018 to December 2022.
| Date | ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) model forecast (95% CI) + | ETS model forecast (95% CI)— |
|---|---|---|
| June 2018 | 295 (113, 475) | 200 (81, 482) |
| December 2018 | 136 (86, 358) | 198 (142, 538) |
| June 2019 | 257 (67, 545) | 196 (193, 586) |
| December 2019 | 196 (170, 561) | 194 (89, 628) |
| June 2020 | 251 (172, 673) | 192 (117, 666) |
| December 2020 | 174 (126, 633) | 190 (143, 700) |
| June 2021 | 295 (230, 821) | 188 (168, 733) |
| December 2021 | 159 (150, 712) | 186 (181, 763) |
| June 2022 | 279 (109, 873) | 184 (173, 792) |
| December 2022 | 191 (147, 602) | 182 (178, 819) |
+
ARIMA (4, 0, 1) (0, 1, 0) model: AIC=276.3, AICc=272.7, BIC=269.4; Coefficients: ar1 (0.1434), ar2 (−0.0836), ar3 (0.5796), ar4 (−0.3365), ma1(0.5726). —ETS model: Smoothing parameters: alpha: 0.6749, beta:0.1203, gamma: FALSE; Coefficients: a = 202.2433, b = −2.0000.