Table 1.
Reproduction numbers and forecast accuracy for 50 US states.
| State | Rta max | MAPEb (1-day forecast), % | MAPE (3-day forecast), % | MAPE (7-day forecast), % |
| Alabama | 2.9 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 10.0 |
| Alaska | 2.8 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 11.3 |
| Arizona | 3.3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 10.1 |
| Arkansas | 2.8 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 12.6 |
| California | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 6.3 |
| Colorado | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 7.3 |
| Connecticut | 4.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 9.3 |
| Delaware | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 7.9 |
| District of Columbia | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.4 |
| Florida | 3.6 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 9.3 |
| Georgia | 3.0 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 7.4 |
| Hawaii | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 9.7 |
| Idaho | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 13.6 |
| Illinois | 4.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 8.5 |
| Indiana | 3.8 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 10.4 |
| Iowa | 2.8 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 8.0 |
| Kansas | 3.0 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 8.6 |
| Kentucky | 3.0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 11.2 |
| Louisiana | 3.7 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| Maine | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 6.7 |
| Maryland | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 6.2 |
| Massachusetts | 3.4 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 9.7 |
| Michigan | 4.5 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 12.8 |
| Minnesota | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 8.0 |
| Mississippi | 2.9 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 9.3 |
| Missouri | 3.6 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 11.4 |
| Montana | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 11.9 |
| Nebraska | 2.5 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 9.7 |
| Nevada | 2.9 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 10.0 |
| New Hampshire | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 8.5 |
| New Jersey | 4.1 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 7.8 |
| New Mexico | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 7.3 |
| New York | 4.4 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 16.2 |
| North Carolina | 3.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 7.2 |
| North Dakota | 2.4 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 12.6 |
| Ohio | 3.3 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 9.8 |
| Oklahoma | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 10.2 |
| Oregon | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 6.6 |
| Pennsylvania | 3.2 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 6.3 |
| Rhode Island | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 6.8 |
| South Carolina | 3.5 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 10.6 |
| South Dakota | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 8.7 |
| Tennessee | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 12.5 |
| Texas | 3.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 9.3 |
| Utah | 3.2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 8.3 |
| Vermont | 2.9 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 7.7 |
| Virginia | 2.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 5.1 |
| Washington | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 8.6 |
| West Virginia | 3.5 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 14.0 |
| Wisconsin | 3.6 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 10.0 |
| Wyoming | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 14.2 |
aRt: reproduction number.
bMAPE: mean absolute prediction error.