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. 2021 Apr 7;23(4):e24389. doi: 10.2196/24389

Table 1.

Reproduction numbers and forecast accuracy for 50 US states.

State Rta max MAPEb (1-day forecast), % MAPE (3-day forecast), % MAPE (7-day forecast), %
Alabama 2.9 1.5 4.2 10.0
Alaska 2.8 1.6 3.7 11.3
Arizona 3.3 1.3 2.9 10.1
Arkansas 2.8 1.5 4.0 12.6
California 2.5 1.7 2.9 6.3
Colorado 2.6 1.1 2.9 7.3
Connecticut 4.1 2.0 3.1 9.3
Delaware 2.4 1.7 2.9 7.9
District of Columbia 2.1 0.8 1.8 4.4
Florida 3.6 2.0 4.4 9.3
Georgia 3.0 1.8 3.7 7.4
Hawaii 2.7 2.0 3.6 9.7
Idaho 3.4 2.4 4.8 13.6
Illinois 4.0 1.3 2.5 8.5
Indiana 3.8 1.4 4.0 10.4
Iowa 2.8 1.8 3.6 8.0
Kansas 3.0 1.6 3.5 8.6
Kentucky 3.0 2.6 4.9 11.2
Louisiana 3.7 1.8 4.0 12.1
Maine 2.0 1.2 2.8 6.7
Maryland 3.3 1.2 2.8 6.2
Massachusetts 3.4 1.3 3.6 9.7
Michigan 4.5 1.6 3.5 12.8
Minnesota 2.7 1.3 2.9 8.0
Mississippi 2.9 1.2 3.0 9.3
Missouri 3.6 1.8 3.3 11.4
Montana 3.3 1.6 3.7 11.9
Nebraska 2.5 2.0 4.1 9.7
Nevada 2.9 2.3 3.8 10.0
New Hampshire 2.3 1.7 3.3 8.5
New Jersey 4.1 1.5 2.3 7.8
New Mexico 2.3 2.2 3.4 7.3
New York 4.4 1.5 4.2 16.2
North Carolina 3.2 1.3 2.4 7.2
North Dakota 2.4 1.8 4.8 12.6
Ohio 3.3 1.2 3.4 9.8
Oklahoma 3.1 1.4 3.5 10.2
Oregon 2.5 1.3 2.8 6.6
Pennsylvania 3.2 1.7 2.9 6.3
Rhode Island 2.4 1.5 3.1 6.8
South Carolina 3.5 2.1 4.3 10.6
South Dakota 2.1 1.3 3.2 8.7
Tennessee 3.5 2.2 4.8 12.5
Texas 3.6 2.0 3.9 9.3
Utah 3.2 1.4 3.1 8.3
Vermont 2.9 0.8 2.4 7.7
Virginia 2.5 1.1 2.1 5.1
Washington 3.0 2.0 4.8 8.6
West Virginia 3.5 1.6 3.9 14.0
Wisconsin 3.6 1.5 3.2 10.0
Wyoming 2.9 1.9 4.7 14.2

aRt: reproduction number.

bMAPE: mean absolute prediction error.