Table 1.

Model parameters in the COVID-19 campus × community epidemic models, estimated values, literature sources, and ranges used for parameter search and sensitivity analysis. “Rank order” indicates the relative significance of each parameter on campus (community; additional community) outcomes (16-week totals); only statistically significant factors are shown (α=.05).

Parameter	Definition	Lower bound	Most likely	Upper bound	Sources	Rank
						Infection	Mortality
R0,1	Average number of students who become infected by infectious students	0.66	1	3.4	[90]	2 (6; 3)	5 (—a; 3)
R0,2	Average number of residents infected by infectious residents	0.66	—	3.4	[90], parameter search	5 (2; 2)	— (5; 4)
rij	Cross-exposure parameter (campus × community)	0.005	0.008	0.02	Estimated	6 (6; 5)	— (—; 8)
π1	Proportion of student population initially infected at semester start	0.001	.01	.05	[91-93]	4 (—; 6)	6 (—; 9)
π2	Proportion of community population initially infected at semester start	0.0016	.01	.016	[94]	— (4; 4)	— (7; 10)
pj	Proportion of exposed people that become infected	0.5	0.9	1	Estimated	— (7; —)	3 (3; 5)
	Incubation duration (in days)	2	4.5	14	[95,96]	3 (3; 7)	7 (6; 7)
	Recovery duration (in days)	6	14	42	[97-99]	1 (1; 1)	2 (1; 1)
CFR1	Fatality rate for college population	0.001	0.0092	0.016	[97,100]	— (—; —)	1 (—; —)
CFR2	Fatality rate for community population	0.01	0.06	0.15	[101,102]	— (5; —)	— (2; 2)
	Number of days from infection until death	14	35	56	[99]	— (8; —)	4 (4; 6)

^aNot available.