Table 3.
Predicted median number of monthly COVID-19 exposures, infections, and deaths per 10,000 students during fall 2020 (northeast US urban university example). Values in parentheses indicate 95% probability ranges.
| Scenario | September | October | November | December | |||||||||||
|
|
Exposure | Infection | Mortality | Exposure | Infection | Mortality | Exposure | Infection | Mortality | Exposure | Infection | Mortality | |||
| Base case | 474 (175-1840) | 318 (146-1181) | 1 (0-3) | 708 (160-4731) | 510 (131-3561) | 2 (1-11) | 925 (124-3532) | 685 (105-2946) | 3 (0-16) | 638 (74-1934) | 522 (63-1576) | 2 (0-12) | |||
| Realistic arrival precautions | 245 (89-1011) | 163 (74-639) | 1 (0-2) | 392 (84-3723) | 278 (68-2777) | 1 (0-8) | 554 (67-4024) | 411 (56-3304) | 2 (0-14) | 504 (41-2279) | 389 (36-1874) | 2 (0-12) | |||
| Idealistic arrival precautions | 26 (9-113) | 17 (7-69) | 0 (0-0) | 44 (9-769) | 30 (7-476) | 0 (0-1) | 70 (7-3072) | 49 (6-2133) | 0 (0-5) | 76 (5-2997) | 56 (4-2366) | 0 (0-8) | |||
| Worst case | 1084 (415-3613) | 744 (353-2398) | 3 (1-8) | 1377 (354-4623) | 1026 (301-3895) | 5 (1-17) | 1225 (248-2840) | 994 (221-2380) | 5 (1-19) | 624 (122-1406) | 537 (114-1214) | 3 (1-12) | |||