Table 2.
Global Allocation of Vaccine Doses for both Non-Optimised and Optimised Scenarios. The global vaccine supply was assumed to be constrained to 2 billion doses, with a two-dose schedule and 15% buffer and wastage (resulting in 0.85 billion vaccine courses available). Table S4 shows impact for the same non-optimised allocation strategies, but with the assumption that limited countries within each income setting are allocated doses at high (80%) coverage. Table S6 shows the sensitivity analysis for each of the non-optimised scenarios. FVP: fully vaccinated persons.
| Allocation strategy | Income setting | Target age group | Deaths averted per million | Deaths averted per 100 FVP | Total deaths averted per million global population | Total deaths averted per 100 FVP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allocated to all countries at varying coverage | A: Countries receive doses in proportion to population | HIC | all | 831 | 0.76 | 650 | 0.59 |
| UMIC | all | 531 | 0.48 | ||||
| LMIC | all | 730 | 0.66 | ||||
| LIC | all | 482 | 0.44 | ||||
| B: Countries receive doses in proportion to population, with 65 + group prioritised and remaining doses allocated to 15–64 age groups | HIC | 15+ | 1389 | 1.26 | 1324 | 1.20 | |
| UMIC | 15+ | 1270 | 1.14 | ||||
| LMIC | 15+ | 1374 | 1.25 | ||||
| LIC | 15+ | 1221 | 1.11 | ||||
| C: Countries receive doses in proportion to 65 + population, with 65 + group prioritised and remaining doses allocated to 15–64 age groups | HIC | 15+ | 2238 | 0.9 | 1386 | 1.25 | |
| UMIC | 15+ | 1285 | 1.09 | ||||
| LMIC | 15+ | 1237 | 1.91 | ||||
| LIC | 15+ | 918 | 2.56 | ||||
| D: Allocated first to high-income countries | HIC | all | 3234 | 0.46 | 513 | 0.46 | |
| UMIC | all | 0 | 0 | ||||
| LMIC | all | 0 | 0 | ||||
| LIC | all | 0 | 0 | ||||
| E: Allocated first to low-income and lower-middle-income countries | HIC | all | 0 | 0 | 597 | 0.53 | |
| UMIC | all | 0 | 0 | ||||
| LMIC | all | 1323 | 0.55 | ||||
| LIC | all | 1074 | 0.45 | ||||
| F: Countries receive doses in proportion to population, plus 1.15b doses to HIC and 1.1b doses to MIC | HIC | all | 3231 | 0.63 | 1308 | 0.56 | |
| UMIC | all | 898 | 0.47 | ||||
| LMIC | all | 1099 | 0.58 | ||||
| LIC | all | 482 | 0.44 | ||||
| Optimised allocation | Allocation algorithm selects countries and age groups within targets to maximise deaths averted | HIC | optimised | 3135 | 1.16 | 1672 | 1.43 |
| UMIC | optimised | 1241 | 1.44 | ||||
| LMIC | optimised | 1581 | 1.62 | ||||
| LIC | optimised | 1533 | 1.81 | ||||