Table 3.
Performance of 4 definitions of childhood elevated BP in predicting adult outcomes based on ROC curve analysis
| Sensitivity, % | Specificity, % | PPV, % | NPV, % | AUC (95% CI) | P value for AUC difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hypertension | ||||||
| Chinese BP standards | 38.4 | 84.4 | 26.6 | 90.3 | 0.614 (0.574‐0.655) | Ref |
| Fourth Report BP standards | 32.5 | 88.1 | 28.7 | 89.9 | 0.603 (0.564‐0.642) | .264 |
| International BP standards | 36.4 | 84.9 | 26.2 | 90.1 | 0.607 (0.567‐0.647) | .209 |
| Updated US standards | 37.1 | 85.6 | 27.5 | 90.2 | 0.613 (0.573‐0.653) | .927 |
| High cfPWV | ||||||
| Chinese BP standards | 25.4 | 84.9 | 35.8 | 77.4 | 0.551 (0.522‐0.580) | Ref |
| Fourth Report BP standards | 19.4 | 87.9 | 34.7 | 76.6 | 0.536 (0.510‐0.563) | .056 |
| International BP standards | 24.3 | 85.3 | 35.3 | 77.2 | 0.548 (0.519‐0.576) | .404 |
| Updated US standards | 24.3 | 86.0 | 36.5 | 77.4 | 0.551 (0.523‐0.580) | .997 |
| High CIMT | ||||||
| Chinese BP standards | 24.9 | 83.6 | 33.5 | 77.1 | 0.543 (0.515‐0.570) | Ref |
| Fourth Report BP standards | 19.1 | 87.0 | 32.7 | 76.4 | 0.531 (0.505‐0.556) | .108 |
| International BP standards | 23.9 | 84.2 | 33.3 | 76.9 | 0.540 (0.513‐0.568) | .667 |
| Updated US standards | 23.5 | 84.7 | 33.8 | 77.0 | 0.541 (0.514‐0.569) | .844 |
| High LVMI | ||||||
| Chinese BP standards | 28.0 | 84.6 | 37.6 | 78.0 | 0.563 (0.535‐0.591) | Ref |
| Fourth Report BP standards | 22.5 | 88.1 | 38.6 | 77.4 | 0.553 (0.527‐0.580) | .183 |
| International BP standards | 28.3 | 85.6 | 39.5 | 78.3 | 0.570 (0.542‐0.598) | .110 |
| Updated US standards | 28.3 | 86.3 | 40.7 | 78.4 | 0.573 (0.545‐0.601) | .076 |
| Any subclinical CVD | ||||||
| Chinese BP standards | 24.6 | 87.7 | 67.4 | 53.0 | 0.562 (0.540‐0.583) | Ref |
| Fourth Report BP standards | 18.9 | 90.0 | 66.1 | 51.8 | 0.544 (0.525‐0.564) | .002 |
| International BP standards | 23.7 | 88.3 | 67.6 | 52.8 | 0.560 (0.539‐0.582) | .636 |
| Updated US standards | 23.1 | 88.6 | 67.6 | 52.7 | 0.558 (0.537‐0.580) | .488 |
AUC, area under curve; BP, blood pressure; cfPWV, carotid‐femoral pulse wave velocity; CI, confidence interval; CIMT, carotid intima‐media thickness; CVD, cardiovascular disease; LVMI, left ventricular mass index; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.