Table 1. Estimated Zika virus infections and 95% credible intervals (CrI) using three surveillance indicators.
Surveillance Indicator | Cumulative ZIKV infections [95% CrI] | Proportion of ZIKV infections [95% CrI] | Median incident infections per 10,000 [95% CrI] | Peak weekly incident infections per 10,000 people [95% CrI] | Week of peak incidence [95% CrI] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suspected arboviral cases | 900,000 [630,000, 1,200,000] | 27% [19%, 35%] | 41 [28, 54] | 130 [93, 180] | 33 [32, 34] |
Suspected ZIKV-associated GBS cases | 880,000 [420,000, 1,300,000] | 26% [12%, 38%] | 39 [16, 56] | 130 [66, 240] | 32 [28, 38] |
Blood bank data | 960,000 [650,000, 1,300,000] | 28% [19%, 37%] | 35 [22, 48] | 150 [99, 220] | 28 [24, 34] |
Combined indicators | 890,000 [660,000, 1,100,000] | 26% [19%, 33%] | 40 [30, 52] | 130 [97, 170] | 33 [22, 34] |
Median and 95% CrIs are shown from posterior distributions for each surveillance indicator. Peak week refers to the calendar week of the year associated with peak incidence during the epidemic. Abbreviations: CrI, credible interval; GBS, Guillain-Barré Syndrome; ZIKV, Zika virus.