Table 3. Model parameters and prior distributions.
| Parameter | Description | Mean | 95% Quantiles | Distribution | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (N) | 2016 population for Puerto Rico | 3,400,000 | - | - | [37] |
| Suspect Zika probability (pS|Z) | Probability of ZIKV infection becoming a suspect case | 0.11 | 0.03, 0.24 | Beta | [32] |
| Viremic detection (V) | Period of detecting Zika virus RNA in blood (days) | 10 | 10.7, 17.7 | Weibull | [30] |
| Asymptomatic proportion (pA) | Proportion of ZIKV infections that are asymptomatic | 0.68 | 0.53, 1.0 | Beta | [5,6,30] |
| GBS probability (pG|Z) | Probability of GBS given ZIKV infection | 1.39/100,000 per week | 9.32x10-5, 5.01x10-4 | Beta | [39] |
| Global baseline GBS risk (pG0) | Weekly GBS risk due to other causes | 1.89/100,00 per week | 1.64x10-7, 3.73x10-7 | Beta | [40] |
Abbreviations: GBS, Guillain-Barré Syndrome; ZIKV, Zika virus