Table 3:
Calibration of breast cancer risk prediction models by risk decile
| n | Observed (O) | Expected (E) | E/O | 95% CI | ||||||||
| BCRAT (Gail) | 12843 | 203 | 165.18 | 0.81 | (0.71–0.93) | |||||||
| BRCAPRO | 12843 | 203 | 120.54 | 0.59 | (0.52–0.68) | |||||||
| IBIS (Tyrer-Cuzick) | 12843 | 203 | 220.92 | 1.09 | (0.95–1.25) | |||||||
| Deciles of predicted risk | ||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | X2 | p | |
| BCRAT (Gail) | ||||||||||||
| Observed | 8 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 41 | 26.78 | 0.0015 |
| Expected | 4.41 | 7.73 | 10.27 | 12.28 | 14.21 | 16.02 | 18.16 | 20.51 | 24.27 | 37.31 | ||
| BRCAPRO | ||||||||||||
| Observed | 8 | 13 | 11 | 18 | 22 | 14 | 21 | 27 | 32 | 37 | 75.82 | ∼=0 |
| Expected | 4.07 | 6.93 | 9.67 | 11.99 | 12.84 | 12.84 | 12.84 | 12.84 | 12.84 | 23.68 | ||
| IBIS (Tyrer-Cuzick) | ||||||||||||
| Observed | 6 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 31 | 41 | 8.64 | 0.47 |
| Expected | 8.14 | 12.17 | 14.84 | 16.97 | 18.76 | 20.58 | 22.58 | 25.2 | 30.3 | 51.35 | ||