Table 2.

Outputs of the simulations (10,000 iterations) of the Paratuberculosis survey model with 6000 of 24,218 dairy herds tested.

	Percentiles
Variable	Minimum	5th	50th	95th	Maximum
Number of infected herds in population	20	37	48	60	75
Number of infected herds tested	2	7	12	18	26
Number of animals tested/herd	1	5	12	24	135
Number of infected animals/herd tested	1	1	1	2	10
Number of infected animals/herd detected	0	0	1	1	8
Number of infected herds detected	0	2	6	11	21
Herd sensitivity (1 positive)	0%	18%	50.5%	83%	100%
Herd specificity (1 positive)	91.8%	92.4%	93.0%	93.5%	94.2%
Number of non-infected herds tested	5974	5982	5988	5993	5998
Number of non-infected animals tested	71688	71784	71856	71916	71976
Number of false positive herds	339	381	413	445	486
False positive:true positive ratio	18	36	70	215	486
Predictive value of positive herd test	0.03%	0.14%	0.51%	4.04%	99.5%
Predictive value of negative herd test	99.2%	99.7%	99.8%	99.9%	99.99%
Cost/infected herd detected (NOK)	256,240	488,822	899,791	2,710,965	5,448,500