Table 5:

Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) values for 6 Bayesian models fit to the rosiglitazone data. The smallest Watanabe-Akaike information criterion value among the 6 models for an outcome and a data setting is in bold. The predictive accuracy is estimated by the expected log predictive density for a new data point (elpd) and is corrected by the effective number of parameters (p).

	Myocardial Infarction			Cardiovascular Death
Model	elpd	p	WAIC	elpd	p	WAIC
All studies (56 studies)
CTE-Logit	−140.1	35.7	280.2	−90.4	24	180.8
CTE-Beta	−277.9	31.2	555.8	−299.2	59.2	598.3
HTE-Logit	−140.5	36.2	281	−89.7	23.8	179.4
HTE-LogitSh	−129.6	19.4	259.2	−90.4	16.5	180.8
AB-Logit	−132.7	25.2	265.5	−91.8	20	183.7
HTE-Beta	−136.9	31.3	273.8	−96.2	25.5	192.3
All studies except RECORD trial (55 studies)
CTE-Logit	−132.9	35.1	265.9	−80.5	21.7	161.1
CTE-Beta	−187.7	14.1	375.4	−109.6	3.7	219.2
HTE-Logit	−133.2	35.5	266.4	−81.2	22.5	162.4
HTE-LogitSh	−122.8	18.6	245.6	−82.1	14.8	164.1
AB-Logit	−125.6	24.3	251.1	−85.1	19.3	170.3
HTE-Beta	−130.7	29.9	261.4	−92.7	26.1	185.4
Trials comparing rosiglitazone + X vs. X alone (42 studies)
CTE-Logit	−103.9	29.4	207.9	−66	19.4	132.1
CTE-Beta	−104.5	2.7	209	−88.1	4.14	176.2
HTE-Logit	−104.2	30.1	208.3	−65.9	19.7	131.9
HTE-LogitSh	−95.2	15.7	190.4	−65.1	12.7	130.2
AB-Logit	−95.2	19.9	190.4	−66.3	16.06	132.6
HTE-Beta	−99.3	22.8	198.7	−70.1	20.6	140.3
Trials comparing rosiglitazone vs. placebo (13 studies)
CTE-Logit	−35.4	9.7	70.9	−28.6	8.9	57.3
CTE-Beta	−35.1	3.0	70.2	−29.2	3.4	58.4
HTE-Logit	−35.2	10.1	70.3	−28.3	9.2	56.7
HTE-LogitSh	−32.5	5.5	64.9	−25.6	5	51.2
AB-Logit	−32.1	6.9	64.1	−24.7	5.8	49.4
HTE-Beta*	−32.0	7.7	64.0	−24.6	6.9	49.3

^*The HTE-Beta model converged poorly for the fourth data setting.