Table 2.
Performance of the MRFP model and the complete medical record model
| Model | N | Discrimination | Calibration | |
| Area under ROC curve | Predictive ability* (mean rate of lowest/highest decile) | Calibration indices (slope, intercept) | ||
| MRFP model | ||||
| Year 2011 (modelling cohort) | 8370 | 0.776 | 0.83%–26.88% | (0.909, 0.007) |
| Year 2015 (validation cohort) | 9704 | 0.794 | 1.00%–29.72% | (0.933, 0.005) |
| Complete medical record model | ||||
| Year 2011 (modelling cohort) | 8370 | 0.790 | 0.51%–27.96% | (0.940, 0.004) |
| Year 2015 (validation cohort) | 9704 | 0.798 | 0.92%–28.69% | (0.927, 0.005) |
*Observed rates in deciles determined by estimated model.
ROC, receiver operating characteristic; MRFP, medical record front page.