Figure 4.

Estimated deaths under modeled scenarios of Covid-19 Convalescent Plasma. Panel A presents the longitudinal observed (dashed line) and modeled number of deaths under three scenarios for CCP over the study period (8/3/2020 – 2/22/2021) that included 356,534 deaths in 1,793,502 hospitalized patients. Over the entire study period, the CCP utilization ratio was 29.1%. In the scenario labeled maintenance of plasma, the CCP utilization ratio was set to 39.5%. With the no plasma and 50% plasma usage scenarios, the CCP utilization ratio was set at 0% and 50%, respectively. Panel B provides the pairwise comparisons of these scenarios to estimate the difference in expected number of deaths among the scenarios for the entire hospitalized patients (upper right triangle) and re-indexed to events per 1000 patients (lower left triangle). The rows represent the comparator or reference scenario, columns indicate the altered CCP use scenario. For example, the cell that intersects the observed deaths and the maintenance of plasma column shows that 29,018 fewer deaths would result had plasma use remained at the 39.5% level.