Table 1. Potential effect of risk thresholds from the LCRAT and LCRAT+CT models in eligible participants of the LUSI trial.
| Percentile of risk | LCRAT + CT next-scan risk | Candidates for Longer Interval, N (%; 95% CI) | Delayed cancer detections, N (%; 95% CI) | False positives avoided/delayed, N (%; 95% CI) | Indeterminates avoided/delayed, N (%; 95% CI) | Sens (%; 95% CI) | Spec (%; 95% CI) | PPV (PPV; 95% CI) | NPV (NPV; 95% CI) | PLR (PLR; 95% CI) | NLR (NLR; 95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | r ≤0.03% | 491 [10] | 1 (5; 0.3, 26.9) | 0 (0; 0, 60.4) | 1 (14.3; 0.8, 58) | 0.95 (0.75, 1.00) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.11) | 0.00 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.06 (0.95, 1.17) | 0.50 (0.07, 3.37) |
| 20th | r ≤0.05% | 981 [20] | 1 (5; 0.3, 26.9) | 0 (0; 0, 60.4) | 3 (42.9; 11.8, 79.8) | 0.95 (0.75, 1.00) | 0.20 (0.19, 0.21) | 0.00 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.19 (1.07, 1.32) | 0.25 (0.04, 1.68) |
| 30th | r ≤0.07% | 1,471 [30] | 1 (5; 0.3, 26.9) | 0 (0; 0, 60.4) | 3 (42.9; 11.8, 79.8) | 0.95 (0.75, 1.00) | 0.30 (0.29, 0.31) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.36 (1.23, 1.51) | 0.17 (0.02, 1.12) |
| 40th | r ≤0.1% | 1,962 [40] | 1 (5; 0.3, 26.9) | 1 (25; 1.3, 78.1) | 3 (42.9; 11.8, 79.8) | 0.95 (0.75, 1.00) | 0.40 (0.39, 0.42) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.59 (1.43, 1.76) | 0.12 (0.02, 0.84) |
| 50th | r ≤0.13% | 2,452 [50] | 2 (10; 1.8, 33.1) | 3 (75; 21.9, 98.7) | 3 (42.9; 11.8, 79.8) | 0.90 (0.68, 0.99) | 0.50 (0.49, 0.52) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.81 (1.56, 2.10) | 0.20 (0.05, 0.74) |
| 60th | r ≤0.17% | 2,942 [60] | 5 (25; 9.6, 49.4) | 3 (75; 21.9, 98.7) | 4 (57.1; 20.2, 88.2) | 0.75 (0.51, 0.91) | 0.60 (0.59, 0.62) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.88 (1.46, 2.43) | 0.42 (0.19, 0.89) |
| 70th | r ≤0.23% | 3,433 [70] | 7 (35; 16.3, 59.1) | 3 (75; 21.9, 98.7) | 4 (57.1; 20.2, 88.2) | 0.65 (0.41, 0.85) | 0.70 (0.69, 0.71) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 2.18 (1.57, 3.01) | 0.50 (0.27, 0.91) |
| 80th | r ≤0.32% | 3,923 [80] | 12 (60; 36.4, 80) | 3 (75; 21.9, 98.7) | 5 (71.4; 30.3, 94.9) | 0.40 (0.19, 0.64) | 0.80 (0.79, 0.81) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 2.01 (1.17, 3.44) | 0.75 (0.52, 1.07) |
| 90th | r ≤0.48% | 4,413 [90] | 16 (80; 55.7, 93.4) | 4 (100; 39.6, 97.6) | 6 (85.7; 42, 99.2) | 0.20 (0.06, 0.44) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 2.01 (0.83, 4.84) | 0.89 (0.71, 1.11) |
| 100th | r ≤2.76% | 4,904 [100] | 20 (100; 80, 99.5) | 4 (100; 39.6, 97.6) | 7 (100; 56.1, 98.7) |
LCRAT, Lung Cancer risk Assessment Tool; Sens, sensitivity; Spec, specificity; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; PLR, positive likelihood ratio; NLR, negative likelihood ratio.