Table 2. Potential effect of risk thresholds from the polynomial model in eligible participants of the LUSI trial.
| Percentile of risk | Polynomial risk | Candidates for Longer Interval, N (%; 95% CI) | Delayed cancer detections, N (%; 95% CI) | False positives avoided/delayed, N (%; 95% CI) | Indeterminates avoided/delayed, N (%; 95% CI) | Sens (%; 95% CI) | Spec (%; 95% CI) | PPV (PPV; 95% CI) | NPV (NPV; 95% CI) | PLR (PLR; 95% CI) | NLR (NLR; 95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T0 | |||||||||||
| 10th | r ≤0.04% | 189 (10) | 0 (0; 0, 32.1) | 8 (32; 15.7, 53.6) | 83 (22.4; 18.3, 27) | 1.00 (0.72, 1.00) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.12) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (0.98, 1.00) | 1.11 (1.10, 1.13) | 0.00 (0.00, NaN) |
| 20th | r ≤0.07% | 378 (20) | 0 (0; 0, 32.1) | 9 (36; 18.7, 57.4) | 108 (29.1; 24.6, 34.1) | 1.00 (0.72, 1.00) | 0.20 (0.18, 0.22) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.25 (1.22, 1.28) | 0.00 (0.00, NaN) |
| 30th | r ≤0.09% | 567 (30) | 0 (0; 0, 32.1) | 9 (36; 18.7, 57.4) | 128 (34.5; 29.7, 39.6) | 1.00 (0.72, 1.00) | 0.30 (0.28, 0.32) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.43 (1.39, 1.48) | 0.00 (0.00, NaN) |
| 40th | r ≤0.13% | 756 (40) | 0 (0; 0, 32.1) | 10 (40; 21.8, 61.1) | 144 (38.8; 33.9, 44) | 1.00 (0.72, 1.00) | 0.40 (0.38, 0.43) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.67 (1.61, 1.74) | 0.00 (0.00, NaN) |
| 50th | r ≤0.17% | 945 (50) | 0 (0; 0, 32.1) | 10 (40; 21.8, 61.1) | 173 (46.6; 41.5, 51.8) | 1.00 (0.72, 1.00) | 0.50 (0.48, 0.53) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 2.01 (1.92, 2.10) | 0.00 (0.00, NaN) |
| 60th | r ≤0.23% | 1,133 (60) | 2 (18.2; 3.2, 52.2) | 11 (44; 25, 64.7) | 195 (52.6; 47.3, 57.7) | 0.82 (0.48, 0.98) | 0.60 (0.58, 0.62) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 2.06 (1.55, 2.73) | 0.30 (0.09, 1.06) |
| 70th | r ≤0.31% | 1,322 (70) | 5 (45.5; 18.1, 75.4) | 14 (56; 35.3, 75) | 237 (63.9; 58.7, 68.7) | 0.55 (0.23, 0.83) | 0.70 (0.68, 0.72) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.83 (1.06, 3.15) | 0.65 (0.34, 1.24) |
| 80th | r ≤0.43% | 1,511 (80) | 8 (72.7; 39.3, 92.7) | 17 (68; 46.4, 84.3) | 267 (72; 67.1, 76.4) | 0.27 (0.06, 0.61) | 0.80 (0.78, 0.82) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.37 (0.52, 3.60) | 0.91 (0.63, 1.31) |
| 90th | r ≤0.71% | 1,700 (90) | 9 (81.8; 47.8, 96.8) | 20 (80; 58.7, 92.4) | 314 (84.6; 80.5, 88.1) | 0.18 (0.02, 0.52) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.04) | 0.99 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.83 (0.52, 6.44) | 0.91 (0.69, 1.20) |
| 100th | r ≤8.3% | 1,889 (100) | 11 (100; 67.9, 99.2) | 25 (100; 83.4, 99.6) | 371 (100; 98.7, 100) | ||||||
| T1-T4 | |||||||||||
| 10th | r ≤0.05% | 699 (10) | 0 (0; 0.3, 13.3) | 13 (16.2; 9.3, 26.6) | 16 (7; 4.2, 11.4) | 1.00 (0.89, 1.00) | 0.10 (0.09, 0.11) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 1.11 (1.10, 1.12) | 0.00 (0.00, NaN) |
| 20th | r ≤0.08% | 1,395 (20) | 1 (3.1; 0.2, 18) | 14 (17.5; 10.2, 28) | 26 (11.4; 7.7, 16.4) | 0.97 (0.84, 1.00) | 0.20 (0.19, 0.21) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.21 (1.14, 1.29) | 0.16 (0.02, 1.07) |
| 30th | r ≤0.1% | 2,090 (30) | 3 (9.4; 2.5, 26.2) | 15 (18.8; 11.2, 29.4) | 31 (13.6; 9.6, 18.9) | 0.91 (0.75, 0.98) | 0.30 (0.29, 0.31) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.30 (1.16, 1.45) | 0.31 (0.11, 0.92) |
| 40th | r ≤0.14% | 2,787 (40) | 4 (12.5; 4.1, 29.9) | 15 (18.8; 11.2, 29.4) | 41 (18; 13.3, 23.7) | 0.88 (0.71, 0.96) | 0.40 (0.39, 0.41) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.46 (1.28, 1.67) | 0.31 (0.12, 0.78) |
| 50th | r ≤0.18% | 3,483 (50) | 6 (18.8; 7.9, 37) | 17 (21.2; 13.2, 32.1) | 58 (25.4; 20, 31.7) | 0.81 (0.64, 0.93) | 0.50 (0.49, 0.51) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.63 (1.38, 1.93) | 0.37 (0.18, 0.77) |
| 60th | r ≤0.23% | 4,181 (60) | 7 (21.9; 9.9, 40.4) | 20 (25; 16.3, 36.2) | 76 (33.3; 27.3, 39.9) | 0.78 (0.60, 0.91) | 0.60 (0.59, 0.61) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 1.96 (1.63, 2.36) | 0.36 (0.19, 0.70) |
| 70th | r ≤0.31% | 4,876 (70) | 12 (37.5; 21.7, 56.3) | 25 (31.2; 21.6, 42.7) | 110 (48.2; 41.6, 54.9) | 0.62 (0.44, 0.79) | 0.70 (0.69, 0.71) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 2.09 (1.60, 2.74) | 0.53 (0.34, 0.84) |
| 80th | r ≤0.44% | 5,576 (80) | 15 (46.9; 29.5, 65) | 36 (45; 34, 56.5) | 134 (58.8; 52.1, 65.2) | 0.53 (0.35, 0.71) | 0.80 (0.79, 0.81) | 0.01 (0.01, 0.02) | 1.00 (1.00, 1.00) | 2.68 (1.93, 3.73) | 0.58 (0.40, 0.85) |
| 90th | r ≤0.69% | 6,269 (90) | 21 (65.6; 46.8, 80.8) | 46 (57.5; 46, 68.3) | 162 (71.1; 64.6, 76.8) | 0.34 (0.19, 0.53) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.02 (0.01, 0.03) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.00) | 3.47 (2.14, 5.64) | 0.73 (0.57, 0.94) |
| 100th | r ≤23.97% | 6,966 (100) | 32 (100; 86.7, 99.7) | 80 (100; 94.3, 99.9) | 228 (100; 97.9, 100) |
Sens, sensitivity; Spec, specificity; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; PLR, positive likelihood ratio; NLR, negative likelihood ratio.