Table 3.
Analysis of the New Simplified Acute Physiologic Score, cardiac output, left ventricle fraction ejection, brain natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin on intensive care unit admission to predict occurrence of death on day 28 for the whole cohort (n = 57) and non-intubated patients at admission (n = 40)
| AUC [95% CI] |
P value | Best cut-off (Se, Sp) |
Youden index | Positive predicted value (%) | Negative predicted value (%) | Positive likelihood ratio | Negative likelihood ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole cohort (n = 57) | ||||||||
|
SAPS II n = 57 |
0.70 [0.57–0.83] |
0.03 |
31 Se = 1.00 Sp = 0.53 |
0.53 | 35 | 100 | 2.1 | 0 |
|
Cardiac output (l/min) n = 54 |
0.75 [0.59–0.91] |
0.01 |
6.3 Se = 0.82 Sp = 0.75 |
0.56 | 45 | 94 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
|
LVFE (%) n = 56 |
0.36 [0.17–0.55] |
0.13 |
50 Se = 0.50 Sp = 0.25 |
− 0.25 | 35 | 86 | 0.6 | 2 |
|
BNP (pg/ml) n = 27 |
0.88 [0.70–1.00] |
< 0.01 |
896 Se = 0.75 Sp = 0.91 |
0.66 | 65 | 95 | 8.3 | 0.2 |
|
Troponin (µg/ml) n = 46 |
0.85 [0.73–0.97] |
< 0.01 |
24 Se = 0.90 Sp = 0.83 |
0.73 | 60 | 96 | 5.3 | 0.1 |
| Non-intubated patients (n = 40) | ||||||||
|
SAPS II n = 40 |
0.86 [0.75–0.98] |
< 0.01 |
30 Se = 1.00 Sp = 0.70 |
0.70 | 41 | 100 | 3.3 | 0 |
|
Cardiac output (l/min) n = 38 |
0.80 [0.66–0.95] |
0.01 |
6.3 Se = 0.86 Sp = 0.78 |
0.63 | 41 | 95 | 3.9 | 1.2 |
|
LVFE (%) n = 39 |
0.28 [0.07–0.50} |
0.7 |
50 Se = 0.43 Sp = 0.22 |
− 0.35 | 30 | 89 | 0.6 | 2.6 |
|
BNP (pg/ml) n = 23 |
0.98 [0.91–1.00] |
< 0.01 |
896 Se = 1.00 Sp = 0.95 |
0.95 | 67 | 100 | 20 | 0 |
|
Troponin (µg/ml) n = 31 |
0.96 [0.88–1.00] |
< 0.01 |
24 Se = 1.00 Sp = 0.92 |
0.92 | 67 | 100 | 12.5 | 0 |
AUC area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves, SAPS Simplified Acute Physiology Score, Se sensibility, Sp specificity, LVFE left ventricle fraction ejection, BNP brain natriuretic peptide