. 2021 Mar 26;42(15):1476–1485. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab059

Table 2.

Overview of the predictive performance of the six included and externally validated risk scores

		Risk score characteristics			Validation
Study	Outcome	Timeframe (validated)	Original c-statistic	Normal eGFR			Mild CKD			Advanced CKD
Study	Outcome	Timeframe (validated)	Original c-statistic	C-statistic	Obs.	Pred.	C-statistic	Obs.	Pred.	C-statistic	Obs.	Pred.
AFI²⁰	IS, TIA, SE	NS (2.3 y)	—	0.68 (0.67–0.69)	0.076	0.114	0.58 (0.57–0.59)	0.130	0.147	0.55 (0.51–0.59)	0.127	0.150
CHADS₂ ²¹	IS, TIA	NS (1.0 y)	0.82	0.78 (0.77–0.80)	0.047	0.039	0.70 (0.68–0.72)	0.084	0.055	0.71 (0.66–0.76)	0.086	0.063
Modified- CHADS₂ ²²	IS, HS	5 y (5 y)	0.72	0.78 (0.77–0.79)	0.124	0.150	0.73 (0.71–0.74)	0.204	0.231	0.74 (0.69–0.79)	0.225	0.238
CHA₂DS₂-VASc²³	IS, TIA, SE	1 y (1 y)	0.61	0.70 (0.69–0.71)	0.043	0.022	0.60 (0.58–0.62)	0.074	0.027	0.58 (0.52–0.64)	0.065	0.028
ATRIA²⁴	IS, SE	NS (2.4 y)	0.73	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.078	0.055	0.68 (0.66–0.70)	0.133	0.097	0.66 (0.60–0.72)	0.130	0.120
GARFIELD-AF²⁵	IS, TIA, SE	1 y (1 y)	0.69	0.76 (0.75–0.77)	0.047	0.029	0.67 (0.65–0.69)	0.084	0.104	0.70 (0.64–0.76)	0.086	0.108

Discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration in the large (observed vs. predicted) stratified by CKD stages. CKD categories were defined based on the eGFR classification of the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) criteria. Normal kidney function was defined as KDIGO G1-2 (eGFR >60 mL/min/1.73 m²), mild CKD as KDIGO G3 (eGFR 30–60 mL/min/1.73 m²), and advanced CKD as KDIGO G4-5 (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m²). Risk scores were validated at the timeframe specified in the article, or if no specification was given, at the maximum follow-up.

CKD, chronic kidney disease; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HS, haemorrhagic stroke; IS, ischaemic stroke; NS, not specified; Obv., observed; Pred., predicted; SE, systemic embolus; TIA, transient ischaemic attack.