Table 2.
Estimated number of PM2.5 and ozone-related premature deaths attributable to each of 17 mobile sectors in 2011 and 2025 (95% confidence intervals)a
| 2011 | 2025 | Change in Burdenb | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM2.5 | Ozone | PM2.5 | Ozone | PM2.5 | Ozone | Total | |
| Non-road | |||||||
| Recreational (incl. pleasure craft) | 520 (350–690) | 200 (70–350) | 310 (210–410) | 210 (70–350) | ↓41% | ↑8% | ↓28% |
| Construction | 1800 (2300–680) | 170 (55–280) | 700 (470–920) | 140 (46–230) | ↓60% | ↓17% | ↓56% |
| Lawn & garden commercial | 680 (460–900) | 56 (19–94) | 1000 (680–1300) | 78 (26–130) | ↑48% | ↑38% | ↑47% |
| Lawn & garden residential | 180 (120–240) | 32 (11–53) | 270 (180–360) | 30 (10–50) | ↑50% | ↓6% | ↑41% |
| Agriculture | 480 (320–630) | 190 (63–320) | 210 (140–270) | 130 (44–220) | ↓57% | ↓29% | ↓49% |
| Commercial | 490 (330–650) | 46 (15–76) | 400 (270–530) | 57 (19–96) | ↓19% | ↑26% | ↓15% |
| All other (industrial, logging, mining, oil) | 510 (350–680) | 74 (25–120) | 270 (180–360) | 71 (23–120) | ↓47% | ↓5% | ↓42% |
| On-road | |||||||
| Light duty gas cars and motorcycles | 2300 (1600–3000) | 410 (140–680) | 1500 (1000–2000) | 180 (58–290) | ↓34% | ↓57% | ↓38% |
| Light duty gas trucks | 2500 (1700–3300) | 700 (230–1200) | 1600 (1100–2100) | 260 (87–440) | ↓37% | ↓62% | ↓42% |
| Heavy duty gas + CNG | 96 (65–130) | 32 (11–53) | 79 (53–100) | 23 (8–38) | ↓18% | ↓29% | ↓21% |
| Light duty diesel | 270 (190–360) | 47 (16–78) | 480 (320–630) | 130 (44–220) | ↑73% | ↑182% | ↑89% |
| Heavy duty diesel | 4500 (3100–6000) | 750 (250–1300) | 1900 (1300–2500) | 550 (180–910) | ↓58% | ↓27% | ↓54% |
| Marine, rail and aircraft | |||||||
| C1 & C2 | 380 (260–500) | 130 (43–220) | 260 (170–340) | 130 (44–220) | ↓32% | ↑1% | ↓23% |
| C3 | 1700 (1200–2300) | 220 (74–370) | 460 (310–600) | 320 (110–540) | ↓73% | ↑44% | ↓60% |
| Rail | 910 (620–1200) | 200 (67–340) | 750 (500–990) | 260 (86–430) | ↓18% | ↑29% | ↓10% |
| Aircraft (excluding ground support) | 360 (240–470) | 26 (9–43) | 570 (380–750) | 78 (26–130) | ↑58% | ↑200% | ↑68% |
| Aircraft ground support only | 23 (15–30) | 3 (1–5) | 33 (24–44) | 8 (3–14) | ↑49% | ↑173% | ↑64% |
| All non-mobile sectorc | 83 000 (56 000–110 000) | 8800 (2900–15 000) | 88 000 (60 000–120 000) | 12 000 (3900–20 000) | ↑6% | ↑34% | ↑9% |
Incidence estimates rounded to two significant figures. PM-related premature deaths based on effect estimates derived from Krewski et al 2009 26]; ozone-related premature deaths based on effect estimates derived from Bell et al 2004 [27]. Attributable deaths estimated using population projected to each year.
Percent change calculated on estimates prior to rounding.
‘All Non-mobile Sectors’ includes biogenics, fugitive dusts, agricultural ammonia, oil and gas exploration, non-Electricity Generating Unit point, Electricity Generating Unit point, non-point, fires (wild, prescribed, agricultural), biomass burning, and initial/boundary condition emissions.