Table 4.
Risk of CVD outcomes and mortality associated with BMI trajectory groups
| Unadjusted Hazards ratio (95% CI) | Adjusted hazards ratio (95% CI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVD outcome | Trajectory group | Model adjusted for age and sex | Model adjusted for age, sex and comorbiditiesa | |
| Overall CVD | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.25 (1.22–1.28) | 1.24 (1.21–1.28) | 1.15 (1.12–1.19) | |
| obese 2-S | 1.32 (1.28–1.36) | 1.46 (1.41–1.51) | 1.27 (1.23–1.31) | |
| obese 3-S | 1.42 (1.35–1.50) | 1.75 (1.66–1.85) | 1.40 (1.33–1.48 | |
| Coronary heart disease | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.23 (1.19–1.28) | 1.23 (1.18–1.27) | 1.14 (1.10–1.18) | |
| obese 2-S | 1.17 (1.12–1.22) | 1.30 (1.24–1.35) | 1.13 (1.09–1.18) | |
| obese 3-S | 1.07 (0.99–1.16) | 1.31 (1.22–1.42) | 1.06 (0.99–1.16) | |
| Stroke/ TIA | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.18 (1.12–1.24) | 1.16 (1.10–1.22) | 1.09 (1.03–1.15) | |
| obese 2-S | 1.16 (1.09–1.24) | 1.27 (1.19–1.36) | 1.13 (1.06–1.20) | |
| obese 3-S | 1.04 (0.93–1.18) | 1.26 (1.12–1.42) | 1.04 (0.92–1.18) | |
| Peripheral vascular disease | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.13 (1.05–1.22) | 1.13 (1.04–1.22) | 0.99 (0.92–1.07) | |
| obese 2-S | 1.02 (0.92–1.12) | 1.16 (1.06–1.29) | 0.92 (0.83–1.01) | |
| obese 3-S | 0.79 (0.65–0.96) | 1.03 (0.85–1.25) | 0.73 (0.60–0.89) | |
| Heart failure | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.73 (1.63–1.83) | 1.73 (1.63–1.83) | 1.51 (1.42–1.60) | |
| obese 2-S | 2.31 (2.16–2.46) | 2.70 (2.53–2.88) | 2.09 (1.96–2.23) | |
| obese 3-S | 3.58 (3.28–3.91) | 4.94 (4.53–5.40) | 3.26 (2.98–3.57) | |
| All-cause mortality | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.16 (1.13–1.20) | 1.16 (1.12–1.19) | 1.12 (1.09–1.16) | |
| obese 2-S | 1.41 (1.36–1.46) | 1.63 (1.58–1.69) | 1.55 (1.50–1.61) | |
| obese 3-S | 2.17 (2.06–2.29) | 2.96 (2.81–3.12) | 2.72 (2.58–2.87) | |
| CVD-related deaths | overweight-S | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| obese 1-S | 1.53 (1.40–1.68) | 1.54 (1.40–1.68) | 1.44 (1.31–1.58) | |
| obese 2-S | 1.94 (1.75–2.15) | 2.33 (2.10–2.59) | 2.06 (1.86–2.29) | |
| obese 3-S | 2.73 (2.35–3.17) | 3.98 (3.42–4.63) | 3.31 (2.84–3.86) | |
Trajectory group 1 (overweight-stable) used as baseline group for comparison
a Multivariate cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease