TABLE 1.
Final model and model outputs for Eurasian Wigeon (A), Anatidae (B), tufted ducks (C) and Laridae (D). The model outputs represent mean ratio (MR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the geometric mean bird densities/km2 obtained after anti‐log transformation of the linear regression model coefficients
| A. Model estimates based on final model for Eurasian Wigeon with factors: Farm type + month + distance + farm type x month | B. Model estimates based on final model for Anatidae with factors: Farm type + month + distance + farm type x month | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factor | MR | 95% CI | Factor | MR | 95% CI |
| Intercept = September, distance 0–1 km. R‐NW farms = 0.01 (0–0.04) | Intercept = September, distance 0–1 km, R‐NW farms = 4.01 (2.32–6.92) | ||||
| Oct a | 4.32 | 3.77‐4.96 | Oct a | 1.37 | 1.26‐1.49 |
| Nov | 7.12 | 5.96‐8.52 | Nov | 2.16 | 1.95‐2.39 |
| Dec | 7.82 | 6.39‐9.58 | Dec | 2.76 | 2.48‐3.08 |
| Jan | 7.83 | 6.30‐9.74 | Jan | 3.55 | 3.18‐3.97 |
| Feb | 7.67 | 6.10‐9.63 | Feb | 2.77 | 2.48‐3.10 |
| Mar | 6.57 | 5.20‐8.31 | Mar | 1.18 | 1.06‐1.33 |
| April | 0.56 | 0.44‐0.71 | April | 0.55 | 0.49‐0.62 |
| Distance 1–3 km b | 1.98 | 1.03‐3.82 | Distance 1–3 km b | 1.42 | 1.04‐1.93 |
| Distance 3–6 km | 3.35 | 1.74‐6.46 | Distance 3–6 km | 2.07 | 1.51‐2.82 |
| Distance 6–10 km | 4.44 | 2.30‐8.56 | Distance 6–10 km | 2.43 | 1.78‐3.32 |
| Sept: R‐W farms c | 33.03 | 6.13‐177.90 | Sept: R‐W farms c | 3.68 | 1.68‐8.08 |
| Oct: R‐W farms | 33.40 | 6.20‐179.88 | Oct: R‐W farms | 4.45 | 2.03‐9.77 |
| Nov: R‐W farms | 35.03 | 6.50‐188.67 | Nov: R‐W farms | 4.35 | 1.98‐9.55 |
| Dec: R‐W farms | 39.78 | 7.39‐214.24 | Dec: R‐W farms | 4.07 | 1.85‐8.94 |
| Jan: R‐W farms | 37.34 | 6.93‐201.12 | Jan: R‐W farms | 3.89 | 1.77‐8.53 |
| Feb: R‐W farms | 40.23 | 7.47‐216.67 | Feb: R‐W farms | 4.25 | 1.94‐9.34 |
| Mar: R‐W farms | 28.92 | 5.37‐155.75 | Mar: R‐W farms | 5.26 | 2.40‐11.56 |
| April: R‐W farms | 21.24 | 3.94‐114.42 | April: R‐W farms | 4.63 | 2.11‐10.17 |
| Sept: H farms c | 86.36 | 14.17‐526.34 | Sept: H farms c | 4.60 | 1.97‐10.74 |
| Oct: H farms | 86.82 | 14.24‐529.16 | Oct: H farms | 8.38 | 3.59‐19.57 |
| Nov: H farms | 104.68 | 17.17‐638.00 | Nov: H farms | 9.63 | 4.12‐22.49 |
| Dec: H farms | 105.26 | 17.27‐641.53 | Dec: H farms | 8.16 | 3.49‐19.06 |
| Jan: H farms | 102.24 | 16.77‐623.14 | Jan: H farms | 6.13 | 2.63‐14.33 |
| Feb: H farms | 99.95 | 16.40‐609.21 | Feb: H farms | 7.94 | 3.4‐18.53 |
| Mar: H farms | 96.23 | 15.79‐586.50 | Mar: H farms | 10.84 | 4.64‐25.33 |
| April: H farms | 78.16 | 12.82‐476.37 | April: H farms | 6.29 | 2.69‐14.70 |
| C. Model estimates based on final model for Tufted ducks with factors: Farm type + month + distance + farm type x month + farm type x distance | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factor | MR | 95% CI | Factor | MR | 95% CI |
| Intercept = September, distance 0–1 km = 0.16 (0.08–0.35) | |||||
| Oct a | 1.74 | 1.64‐1.84 | |||
| Nov | 2.23 | 2.07‐2.39 | |||
| Dec | 2.45 | 2.27‐2.65 | |||
| Jan | 2.57 | 2.37‐2.78 | |||
| Feb | 2.52 | 2.32‐2.73 | |||
| Mar | 2.20 | 2.03‐2.39 | |||
| April | 1.38 | 1.27‐1.50 | |||
| Sept: R‐W farms c | 1.64 | 0.50‐5.37 | Sept: H farms c | 3.09 | 0.86‐11.16 |
| Oct: R‐W farms | 1.38 | 0.42‐4.51 | Oct: H farms | 3.36 | 0.93‐12.11 |
| Nov: R‐W farms | 1.40 | 0.43‐4.56 | Nov: H farms | 3.60 | 1.00‐12.99 |
| Dec: R‐W farms | 1.44 | 0.44‐4.72 | Dec: H farms | 2.98 | 0.83‐10.73 |
| Jan: R‐W farms | 1.33 | 0.41‐4.35 | Jan: H farms | 3.09 | 0.86‐11.14 |
| Feb: R‐W farms | 1.28 | 0.39‐4.17 | Feb: H farms | 2.91 | 0.81‐10.49 |
| Mar: R‐W farms | 1.24 | 0.38‐4.04 | Mar: H farms | 2.87 | 0.79‐10.33 |
| April: R‐W farms | 1.44 | 0.44‐4.69 | April: H farms | 2.57 | 0.71‐9.25 |
| Distance 1–3 km d | 0.94 | 0.49‐1.81 | |||
| Distance 3–6 km | 1.43 | 0.74‐2.75 | |||
| Distance 6–10 km | 2.05 | 1.07‐3.95 | |||
| Distance 1–3 km: R‐W farms e | 4.98 | 1.82‐13.59 | Distance 1–3 km: H farms e | 1.42 | 0.48‐4.24 |
| Distance 3–6 km: R‐W farms | 4.97 | 1.82‐13.58 | Distance 3–6 km: H farms | 3.55 | 1.19‐10.58 |
| Distance 6–10 km: R‐W farms | 3.38 | 1.24‐9.24 | Distance 6–10 km: H farms | 2.59 | 0.87‐7.72 |
| D. Model estimates based on final model for Laridae with factors: Farm type + month | ||
|---|---|---|
| Factor | MR | 95% CI |
| Intercept = September, R‐NW farms = 4.40 (2.78–6.96) | ||
| R‐W farms f | 2.18 | 1.04‐4.54 |
| H farms | 3.37 | 1.53‐7.43 |
| Oct g | 1.32 | 1.26‐1.39 |
| Nov | 1.47 | 1.39‐1.56 |
| Dec | 1.30 | 1.22‐1.38 |
| Jan | 1.78 | 1.68‐1.90 |
| Feb | 1.62 | 1.52‐1.73 |
| Mar | 2.02 | 1.89‐2.15 |
| April | 0.72 | 0.67‐0.77 |
The footnote symbols are given behind the first item of each factor (specific month, distance, etc.), but relate to all items of that factor.
H, hotspot farms infected with H5N8; R‐NW, reference farms in non‐water‐rich area; R‐W, reference farms in water‐rich area; Sept, September; Oct, October; etc.
Ratio of geometric mean bird density (BD) of specific month for R‐NW to the geometric mean BD in reference month Sept for R‐NW farms.
Ratio of geometric mean BD of specific distance to the geometric mean BD for reference distance 0‐1 km (for all farm types and months).
Ratio of geometric mean BD of specific month for R‐W or H‐W farms to the geometric mean BD of the same month for R‐NW farms.
Ratio of geometric mean bird density of specific distance for R‐NW farms to the geometric mean bird density for reference distance 0‐1 km for R‐NW farms.
Ratio of geometric mean BD of specific distance for R‐W or H‐W farms to the geometric mean BD of the same distance for R‐NW farms.
Ratio of geometric mean BD of R‐W or H farms to the geometric mean BD for R‐NW farms.
Ratio of geometric mean BD of specific month to the geometric mean BD in reference month Sept.