Table 3.

Risk to the infected person if infection at the 200th day of the outbreak with an acute care bed capacity of 10000 and ICU bed capacity with ventilators of 1000.

Assuming a 90 % recovery rate of acute care and 70 % recovery rate of critical care systems
a If no measures enforced:
New cases requiring acute care = 19170
Occupied bed/ (old cases)= 116917 (exceeding bed capacity)
Probability of allocation of bed = 0
Probability of safe recovery= 0.00x.90 + 0.00x 0.10x0.00x0.70 = 0.00
Probability of death due to unavailaibility of acute and critical cares = 1 − Probability of safe recovery =1 − 0.00 = 1
b School and business closures:
New cases seeking acute care (based on the most probable value) = 47
Occupied bed/ (old cases)= 255
Available beds for allocation=10000−255=9745
Probability of allocation of bed =1
Probability of safe recovery= $1x.90+1.00x0.10x1.00x0.70=0.97$
Probability of death due to unavailaibility of acute and critical cares= $1-\text{P}\text{r}\text{o}\text{b}\text{a}\text{b}\text{i}\text{l}\text{i}\text{t}\text{y}\text{o}\text{f}\text{s}\text{a}\text{f}\text{e}\text{r}\text{e}\text{c}\text{o}\text{v}\text{e}\text{r}\text{y}=1-0.97=0.03$
c Lockdown:
New cases (based on the most probable value) = 0
Occupied bed/ (old cases)= 0
Available beds for allocation=10000-0=10000
Probability of allocation of bed $=1$
Probability of safe recovery= $1x.90+1.00x0.10x1.00x0.70=0.97$
Probability of death=$1-\text{P}\text{r}\text{o}\text{b}\text{a}\text{b}\text{i}\text{l}\text{i}\text{t}\text{y}\text{o}\text{f}\text{s}\text{a}\text{f}\text{e}\text{r}\text{e}\text{c}\text{o}\text{v}\text{e}\text{r}\text{y}=1-0.97=0.03$