. 2021 Apr 16;31(4):635–643. doi: 10.1007/s10389-021-01541-x

Table 2.

Future daily incidence number and cumulative number of cases for the next 3 months (starting on May 12, 2020) in the Jammu and Kashmir region, India, considering different values of R0 (R0 = 1.041, R0 = 0.9, R0 = 0.75, R0 = 0.5). R0 represents the expected number of secondary cases that one primary case may generate in a susceptible population. Values represent mean with 95% confidence interval

	Future daily incidence number	Cumulative number of cases
R0 = 1.041	21.193 (21.191–21.195)	25.052 (25.050–25.055)	29.674 (29.670–29.677)	320.40 (320.33–320.47)	1013.5 (1013.40–1013.59)	1834.5 (1834.3–1834.6)
R0 = 0.9	14.393 (14.392–14.395)	9.290 (9.289–9.292)	5.955 (5.953–5.956)	238.37 (238.32–238.41)	585.99 (585.94–586.03)	809.52 (809.46–809.57)
R0 = 0.75	9.226 (9.225–9.228)	2.803 (2.802–2.804)	0.866 (0.865–0.866)	168.89 (168.86–168.92)	328.49 (328.47–328.51)	376.77 (376.75–376.80)
R0 = 0.5	4.113 (4.112–4.115)	0.2903 (0.2901–0.2905)	0.0185 (0.0184–0.0185)	88.57 (88.56–88.59)	130.93 (130.93–130.94)	133.80 (133.79–133.81)

Future daily incidence number

Cumulative number of cases

June

July

August

June

July

August

R0 = 1.041

21.193

(21.191–21.195)

25.052

(25.050–25.055)

29.674

(29.670–29.677)

320.40

(320.33–320.47)

1013.5

(1013.40–1013.59)

1834.5

(1834.3–1834.6)

R0 = 0.9

14.393

(14.392–14.395)

9.290

(9.289–9.292)

5.955

(5.953–5.956)

238.37

(238.32–238.41)

585.99

(585.94–586.03)

809.52

(809.46–809.57)

R0 = 0.75

9.226

(9.225–9.228)

2.803

(2.802–2.804)

0.866

(0.865–0.866)

168.89

(168.86–168.92)

328.49

(328.47–328.51)

376.77

(376.75–376.80)

R0 = 0.5

4.113

(4.112–4.115)

0.2903

(0.2901–0.2905)

0.0185

(0.0184–0.0185)

88.57

(88.56–88.59)

130.93

(130.93–130.94)

133.80

(133.79–133.81)