Table. Projected and Actual Mean Weekly Counts of Prescription and Patient Measures From March 18 to May 19, 2020, and From May 20 to September 1, 2020a.
| Characteristic | March 18 to May 19, 2020 | May 20 to September 1, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected 2020 level (95% PI) | Actual 2020 level | Ratio of actual to projected 2020 level (95% PI) | P value | Projected 2020 level (95% PI) | Actual 2020 level | Ratio of actual to projected 2020 level (95% PI) | P value | |
| Weekly prescriptions | ||||||||
| Opioid analgesics | ||||||||
| Prescriptions (thousands) | 2752.15 (2544.21-2960.10) | 2472.76 | 0.90 (0.84-0.97) | .007 | 2668.11 (2459.62-2876.60) | 2753.09 | 1.03 (0.96-1.12) | .48 |
| Total MMEs (millions) | 1843.35 (1687.54-2000.16) | 1877.05 | 1.02 (0.94-1.11) | .71 | 1743.14 (1585.91-1900.36) | 1865.50 | 1.07 (0.98-1.18) | .19 |
| MMEs per prescription | 698.29 (680.98-715.59) | 798.79 | 1.14 (1.12-1.17) | <.001 | 689.89 (672.54-707.24) | 714.87 | 1.04 (1.00-1.06) | .008 |
| Quantity per prescription | 60.02 (58.82-61.22) | 66.73 | 1.11 (1.09-1.13) | <.001 | 59.81 (58.61-61.02) | 61.32 | 1.03 (1.01-1.05) | .02 |
| Buprenorphine | ||||||||
| Prescriptions (thousands) | 311.47 (295.21-327.72) | 294.85 | 0.95 (0.90-1.00) | .04 | 315.19 (298.89-331.49) | 297.55 | 0.94 (0.90-1.00) | .03 |
| Total quantity (thousands) | 9956.64 (9403.35-10 509.93) | 10 241.06 | 1.03 (0.97-1.09) | .36 | 10 194.77 (9640.02-10 749.51) | 10 243.86 | 1.00 (0.97-1.03) | .87 |
| Quantity per prescription | 32.08 (31.48-32.68) | 34.73 | 1.08 (1.06-1.10) | <.001 | 32.53 (31.93-33.13) | 34.43 | 1.06 (1.04-1.08) | <.001 |
| Weekly patients | ||||||||
| Opioid analgesics | ||||||||
| Total No. of patients (thousands) | ||||||||
| Prior patients | 2032.07 (1929.32-2134.82) | 1924.16 | 0.95 (0.90-1.00) | .04 | 1977.76 (1875.01-2080.51) | 2010.07 | 1.02 (0.97-1.07) | .57 |
| Opioid naive | 564.93 (543.12-586.74) | 370.05 | 0.66 (0.63-0.68) | <.001 | 559.04 (537.23-580.85) | 558.29 | 1.00 (0.96-1.04) | .95 |
| Total MMEs (millions) | ||||||||
| Prior patients | 1793.08 (1667.46-1918.70) | 1818.50 | 1.01 (0.95-1.09) | .72 | 1717.03 (1591.41-1842.65) | 1786.13 | 1.04 (0.97-1.12) | .34 |
| Opioid naive | 80.08 (73.22-86.94) | 58.55 | 0.73 (0.67-0.80) | <.001 | 77.55 (70.69-84.40) | 79.37 | 1.02 (0.94-1.12) | .64 |
| Buprenorphine | ||||||||
| Total No. patients (thousands) | ||||||||
| Prior patients | 272.92 (264.92-280.92) | 265.19 | 0.97 (0.94-1.00) | .06 | 276.53 (268.54-284.53) | 267.43 | 0.97 (0.94-1.00) | .03 |
| New patients | 12.01 (11.10-12.91) | 9.86 | 0.82 (0.76-0.88) | <.001 | 11.61 (10.71-12.52) | 10.44 | 0.90 (0.83-0.97) | .009 |
| Total quantity (thousands) | ||||||||
| Prior patients | 9684.91 (9173.37-10 196.45) | 9995.32 | 1.03 (0.98-1.09) | .28 | 9941.33 (9429.79-10 452.88) | 9999.47 | 1.01 (0.96-1.06) | .83 |
| New patients | 267.71 (233.75-301.68) | 245.30 | 0.92 (0.81-1.05) | .21 | 260.88 (226.92-294.85) | 244.39 | 0.94 (0.83-1.08) | .38 |
Abbreviations: MMEs, morphine milligram equivalents; OUD, opioid use disorder; PI, prediction interval.
Weekly prescription and patient measures for opioid analgesics and buprenorphine treatment of OUD during 2 periods: March 18 to May 19, 2020, and May 20 to September 1, 2020. March 18 is the week after President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency concerning the novel coronavirus disease outbreak, and May 20 is the first week that the 7-day moving average number of deaths was below 1500 per day since April 2020. For each period and outcome measure, projected 2020 values are constructed based on projections from a linear regression model using data from January 1, 2018, to March 3, 2020, controlling for week of the year, a linear time trend in weeks from the start of our sample, and an indicator denoting whether a major holiday occurred during a given week (eAppendix 1 in the Supplement). Actual 2020 measures and the ratio of actual to projected measures are also displayed. Two-sided 95% PIs are displayed for these ratios. The P values are for 2-sided t tests of whether the actual 2020 measure is equal to the projected value. See eFigure 1 in the Supplement for a visual representation of these results.