Figure 2.

Scenario comparison. Left column: Model fit to RKI reported data (7 day moving average, yellow dots, ¹⁰ ) up to October 27, 2020, and predictions for daily new reported cases. Right column: Solid lines show the model fit to reported data (purple dots, ¹¹ ) and predicted cases requiring intensive care; dashed gray lines show hypothetical critical thresholds of 5000, 10 000, and 20 000 occupied ICU beds (the latter taking into account an emergency buffer of approximately 10 000 beds), respectively. Top row: Scenario 1 (single shutdown). Starting on November 2, 2020, one single four weeks long shutdown period enhances earlier contact reduction measures. Possible levels of impact of the November measures are projected (red: no further measures—hypothetical; black: weak effect; blue: moderate; green: strong). Second row: Scenario 2 (wave breaker): Variations of the November shutdown are repeated during the Christmas (December 23 to January 11) and the carnival (February 1 to 21) period. Possible levels of impact of the measures on the daily reported new cases are projected. Third row: Scenario 3 (continuous intervention): Moderate restrictions as partially started at the end of October 2020 are maintained until spring 2021, coupled with four weeks more restrictive period in November 2020 (black curve). The blue curve shows comparison with the single November shutdown as in scenario 1