Table 3. Estimated change in smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence by county-level characteristics (1995–2016).
| Characteristics | Smoking prevalence (%) | Lung cancer incidence (per 100,000) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimates [95% CI] | p-value | Estimates [95% CI] | p-value | ||
| Strength of ordinance | |||||
| None or Weak | Ref | Ref | |||
| Moderate to Comprehensive | -1.2 [-1.9, -0.5] | <0.01 | -8.4 [-11.5, -5.3] | <0.01 | |
| Population (log) | -0.2 [-0.8, 0.4] | 0.45 | -4.5 [-8.8, -0.3] | 0.04 | |
| Median income (USD) | 0.08 [0.01, 0.2] | 0.09 | 0.43 [-0.4, 1.3] | 0.33 | |
| % Poverty | 0.3 [0.1, 0.5] | <0.01 | 1.5 [-0.2, 3.1] | 0.08 | |
| % Undergraduate degree | -0.3 [-0.4, -0.2] | <0.01 | -0.4 [-0.9, 0.1] | 0.08 | |
| % Black | 0.11 [0.02, 0.20] | 0.02 | 0.6 [-0.1, 1.4] | 0.1 | |
| % Female | -0.1 [-0.3, 0.1] | 0.44 | -0.2 [-1.6, 1.3] | 0.82 | |
| Metropolitan | -0.1 [-0.7, 0.6] | 0.9 | 5.9 [1.7, 10.1] | 0.01 | |
| Year | -0.2 [-0.2, -0.2] | <0.01 | 0.3 [0.1, 0.5] | <0.01 | |
“Moderate to comprehensive smoke-free ordinances” change is calculated relative to none or weak smoke-free ordinance counties. “Population (log)” change is calculated based on each 10% increase in population. For continuous predictor values, circles represent estimated change based on 1% increase in corresponding characteristic (e.g., for each 1% in poverty, the smoking prevalence increases by 0.3%) except for “Median Income (USD),” which is estimated as change based on an increase of $1,000 and “year,” for which change is estimated based on an increase of 1 year. For “metro”, change is calculated as counties classified as metropolitan versus rural.