Fig. 1. Comparison of incidence trends and R estimates Comparison of national daily incidence trends and R estimates from ProMED, HealthMap and WHO data for Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
a Daily incidence derived from ProMED (blue), HealthMap (green) and WHO data (orange). Daily incidence that were not directly available from ProMED and HealthMap data and which were therefore imputed (see Methods) are shown in lighter shade of blue and green, respectively. WHO data were aggregated to country level. The y-axis differs for each plot. b The median time-varying reproduction number Rt estimated using the WHO data (orange), ProMED (blue) and HealthMap (green) data. The shaded regions depicts the 95% credible intervals (95% CrI) for the Rt estimates. The reproduction number was estimated on sliding windows of 28 days with a Gamma prior with mean 1 and variance 0.25, using the R package EpiEstim26. Estimates shown at time t are for the 28-day window finishing on day t.