Fig. 4. Observed and predicted incidence, and reproduction number estimates from ProMED data.
a The weekly incidence derived from ProMED data and the 4 weeks incidence forecast on log scale. The solid dots represent the observed weekly incidence where the light blue dots show weeks for which all data points were obtained using interpolation. The projections are made over 4 week windows, based on the reproduction number estimated in the previous 2 weeks. b The reproduction number used to make forecasts over each 4 week forecast horizon. c The effective reproduction number estimated retrospectively using the full dataset up to the length of one calibration window before the end. In each case, the solid black line is the median estimate and the shaded region represents the 95% Credible Interval. The red horizontal dashed line indicates the Rt = 1 threshold. Results are shown for the three mainly affected countries although the analysis was done jointly using data for all countries in Africa.