Table 1.
Model parameters and their estimated value.
| Model parameter | Staff | Resident | Source | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age group | 20–49 | 50–64 | <60 | 60–69 | 70–79 | 80–89 | 90+ | |
| Transmission probability per contact during pre-symptomatic stage | 0.0438 | (Public Health Ontario, 2020) | ||||||
| Calibrated to incidence data for LTCFs in Ontario | ||||||||
| Incubation period (days) | Log-Normal(shape: 1.434, scale: 0.661) | (Lauer et al., 2020) | ||||||
| Asymptomatic period (days) | Gamma(shape: 5, scale: 1) | Derived from (Gatto et al., 2020; He et al., 2020) | ||||||
| Pre-symptomatic period (days) | Gamma(shape: 1.058, scale: 2.174) | (He et al., 2020) | ||||||
| Infectious period from onset of symptoms (days) | Gamma(shape: 2.768, scale: 1.1563) | Derived from (Li et al., 2020a) | ||||||
| Proportion of individuals with comorbidities | 0.18 | 0.38 | 1 | (Adams et al., 2020; Ontario Long Term Care Association, 2019) | ||||
| Proportion of infected individuals developing asymptomatic infection | 0.328 | 0.328 | 0.328 | 0.258 | 0.188 | 0.188 | 0.188 | (Mizumoto et al., 2020) |
| Proportion of symptomatic cases developing severe illness | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.8 | (Moghadas et al., 2020b) | ||||
| Hospitalization rate of symptomatic cases | 23.5% | 23.5% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | (Public Health Ontario, 2020) |
| Case fatality rate | 0.21% | 0.21% | 8.4% | 18.8% | 24.1% | 27.9% | 35.4% | (Public Health Ontario, 2020) |
| Length of hospital stay | Gamma(shape: 4.5, scale: 2.75) | (Sanche et al., 2020) | ||||||