Table 4.

Physical distancing scenarios. The estimated number of total incidences, peak capacity requirement of non-ICU and ICU beds, and time to peak.

Scenarios	Total Incidence	Requirement at peak		Time to peak in days
		Non-ICU	ICU	Non-ICU	ICU
Base	22.0 ​M	832 k	118 k	192	190
Half-lockdown for 30 days	21.7 ​M	786 k	111 k	261	260
24-Mar to 22 Apr (50% of work, school and other contacts)
Half-lockdown for 60 days	21.6 ​M	768 k	109 k	330	329
24-Mar to 22 May (50% of work, school and other contacts)
Half-lockdown for 90 days	21.5 ​M	761 k	108 k	398.5	397
24-Mar to 21 June (50% of work, school and other contacts)
Half-lockdown for 120 days	21.5 ​M	758 k	107 k	466	465
24-Mar to 21 July (50% of work, school and other contacts)
Half-lockdown for 150 days	21.4 ​M	757 k	107 k	534	532
24-Mar to 20 August (50% of work, school and other contacts)
Full lockdown for 30 days	21.6 ​M	782 k	111 k	330	328
24-Mar to 22 Apr (10% of work, school and other contacts)
Full lockdown for 60 days	21.6 ​M	779 k	110 k	464	462
24-Mar to 22 May (10% of work, school and other contacts)
Full lockdown for 90 days	21.1 ​M	778 k	110 k	596	595
24-Mar to 21 June (10% of work, school and other contacts)
Full lockdown for 120 days	12.8 ​M	778 k	110 k	729	727
24-Mar to 21 July (10% of work, school and other contacts)
Full lockdown for 150 days	1.14 ​M	99.2 k	14.4 k	729	729
24-Mar to 20 Aug (10% of work, school and other contacts)
Cyclic lockdown 15 days until 17 Jan 21 (repeated lockdown and 80% of work, school and other contacts for 15 days)	263 k	32.0 k	4.89 k	29	28
Cyclic lockdown 30 days until 17 Jan 21 (repeated lockdown and 80% of work, school and other contacts for 30 days)	235 k	32.0 k	4.89 k	29	28
Cyclic lockdown 15 days until 17 Jan 21 (repeated lockdown and full contact for 15 days)	1.04 ​M	80.5 k	11.7 k	729	729
Cyclic lockdown 30 days until 17 Jan 21 (repeated lockdown and full contact for 30 days)	974 k	78.2 k	11.4 k	729	729