. 2020 Dec 28;149:e6. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820003039

Table 5.

10% prediction intervals for asymptotic limits (SSE) and probabilities for predicting the month-28 count

Month^a	Asymptotic limit^b		Probability^c (%)	Month^a	Asymptotic limit^b		Probability^c (%)
Month^a	Low	High	Probability^c (%)	Month^a	Low	High	Probability^c (%)
10	29 806	2 706 403	8	20	27 165	28 217	0.75
11	15 721	∞	25.11	21	27 377	28 429	1.01
12	19 768	23 488	0.13	22	27 613	28 480	1.4
13	21 571	24 705	0.03	23	27 799	28 594	3.8
14	23 038	25 398	0.01	24	27 874	28 539	3.65
15	24 143	26 359	0.03	25	27 940	28 557	9.19
16	25 191	27 366	0.17	26	28 005	28 621	8
17	25 953	27 597	0.38	27	28 098	28 630	25.11
18	26 423	27 903	0.55	28	28 145	28 587	0.13
19	26 893	28 139	0.65

Truncated data from month 0 to the displayed month.

Minimum and maximum of the asymptotic limits for models with 10% probability to be true, based on SSE, with limits above 28 616 cases displayed in italics.

Minimum of the maximal probabilities of models BP(a, b), whose trajectories at month 28 were above or below the actual count of 28 616 cases.