Figure 2.

Simulation of quarantine and testing strategies

(A) Model-simulated probability of infectiousness. The shaded area indicates the transmission risk emanating from an infected individual. If a quarantine were imposed until day 10 (dashed black vertical line), the risk of transmission would relate to the red-hatched area. Hence, the relative risk denotes the risk after the quarantine divided by the risk without quarantine.

(B) Model-simulated probability of infectiousness when a test (dashed red vertical line) was performed at day 5. If the test were positive, the person would go into isolation, thus not posing a risk, whereas there would be a residual risk that the person was infectious if the test were negative (false negative). The risk after a 10 day quarantine (dashed black vertical line) with a test at day 5 is indicated by the red-crosshatched area.

(C) Relative risk profile for a pure quarantine (as exemplarily shown in [A]). Line, typical parameters; shaded area, extreme parameters.

(D) Relative risk profile for a testing and quarantine scenario (as exemplarily shown in [A]). Line, typical parameters; shaded area, extreme parameters.