Figure 5.

Risk reduction through quarantine and testing strategies for incoming travelers (stable incidence of 50 cases/100,000 inhabitants/week; $P\left(\text{detect}\right)=20\%$)

(A) Percentage relative risk during quarantine with and without symptom screening (20% asymptomatic, default parameters). A 10 day quarantine with symptom screening is marked as the reference intervention (red star), according to current German guidelines. Typical dynamics; error bars, upper and lower extremes.

(B) Percentage relative risk for combined testing and quarantine strategies. In the simulated scenario, individuals go into a pre-test quarantine with a diagnostic test at the end of it, which, when negative, results in the release from quarantine. The reference efficacy (10 day quarantine with symptom screening) is indicated by a horizontal dotted red line. All calculations were performed with parameters from Table 2 and assuming 20% asymptomatic infections, solving Equations 9 and 13. Typical dynamics; error bars, upper and lower extremes.