. 2021 Apr 22;16(4):e0250417. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250417

Table 2. Regional prediction model performances (averaged across all 47 prefectures in Japan).

Season	Model	1-week		2-week		3-week		4-week		5-week
Season	Model	MAE	R²	MAE	R²	MAE	R²	MAE	R²	MAE	R²
	VAR	181.18	0.936	248.07	0.816	314.34	0.690	456.05	0.511	607.31	0.294
2016/31st	LSTM	149.76	0.939	259.34	0.820	375.67	0.693	513.66	0.537	713.20	0.240
–	CNNRNN-Res	163.24	0.918	332.83	0.750	375.44	0.616	396.16	0.542	458.51	0.460
2017/30th	GCN+S2s w/ AD	142.08	0.931	214.89	0.828	266.42	0.616	320.02	0.530	384.38	0.540
	GCN+S2s w/ DD	133.78	0.931	216.11	0.745	279.27	0.615	312.18	0.599	389.78	0.576
	GCN+S2s w/ PF	148.76	0.936	211.30	0.864	265.85	0.760	305.77	0.667	313.29	0.635
	VAR	237.94	0.902	420.40	0.781	699.27	0.362	663.41	0.131	987.73	-0.396
2017/31st	LSTM	216.64	0.866	366.58	0.678	451.27	0.580	517.39	0.541	595.47	0.415
–	CNNRNN-Res	210.29	0.891	343.49	0.733	440.64	0.621	498.01	0.532	610.81	0.423
2018/30th	GCN+S2s w/ AD	197.20	0.918	341.72	0.791	402.10	0.704	448.38	0.628	553.52	0.619
	GCN+S2s w/ DD	201.53	0.915	322.87	0.779	399.76	0.697	479.11	0.648	480.35	0.619
	GCN+S2s w/ PF	215.31	0.918	338.03	0.795	399.42	0.723	442.31	0.666	459.12	0.648
	VAR	239.21	0.916	341.35	0.834	579.81	0.433	822.02	-0.112	1034.90	-0.695
2018/31st	LSTM	167.08	0.912	263.39	0.815	310.94	0.620	368.73	0.673	417.39	0.562
–	CNNRNN-Res	168.01	0.917	375.27	0.652	422.63	0.528	512.72	0.437	615.29	0.400
2019/30th	GCN+S2s w/ AD	130.31	0.967	237.31	0.907	266.94	0.882	290.93	0.852	362.65	0.737
	GCN+S2s w/ DD	146.09	0.961	256.22	0.895	306.38	0.859	335.03	0.830	398.36	0.745
	GCN+S2s w/ PF	117.40	0.974	196.45	0.918	228.85	0.884	230.85	0.887	224.62	0.890
	VAR	126.56	0.942	326.09	0.420	544.50	-0.803	686.64	-1.901	856.59	-3.459
2019/31st	LSTM	124.62	0.842	263.39	0.581	286.15	0.409	369.28	0.188	433.53	-0.316
–	CNNRNN-Res	100.91	0.922	283.58	0.571	333.94	0.357	399.31	0.151	501.02	-0.402
2020/30th	GCN+S2s w/ AD	83.95	0.955	193.15	0.667	274.65	0.395	345.11	0.095	408.42	-0.255
	GCN+S2s w/ DD	96.82	0.959	209.93	0.704	313.72	0.472	395.97	0.164	447.38	-0.074
	GCN+S2s w/ PF	76.26	0.954	164.05	0.707	227.57	0.473	288.72	0.230	343.89	0.006