Table 1.
Initial conditions for each of the simulations performed and corresponding optimal percentages of vaccination in each age group. The dates in the first row represent the starting points of the simulations. The first two columns of each simulation report the starting conditions, i.e. the initial value of the Rt parameter and the total number, in thousands, of susceptible (S), infected (I), recovered (R) and deceased (D) individuals, respectively. The third column shows the simulation results, i.e., the percentage of people to be vaccinated within each age group to reach the minimum of each of the three cost functions considered (number of deaths, QALYs lost and number of infections).
| Age group | Apr 14th |
Aug 12th |
Sep 2nd |
Nov 4th |
Dec 20th |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rt | S,I,R,D (×103) | Dead, QALY, Infected | Rt | S,I,R,D (×103) | Dead, QALY, Infected | Rt | S,I,R,D (×103) | Dead, QALY, Infected | Rt | S,I,R,D (×103) | Dead, QALY, Infected | Rt | S,I,R,D (×103) | Dead, QALY, Infected | |
| 0–19 | 1.9 | 10,717.0 | 0% | 2.7 | 10,712.0 | 0% | 4.2 | 10,708.9 | 0% | 5.4 | 10,637.8 | 0% | 0.6 | 10,488.5 | 0% |
| 2.0 | 0% | 1.5 | 100% | 3.8 | 100% | 61.2 | 0% | 86.5 | 0% | ||||||
| 0.8 | 0% | 6.3 | 0% | 7.0 | 0% | 20.8 | 0% | 144.7 | 0% | ||||||
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| 20–39 | 1.8 | 13,091.4 | 0% | 2.2 | 13,073.2 | 0% | 5.0 | 13,065.2 | 0% | 5.6 | 12,940.8 | 0% | 0.6 | 12,647.2 | 0% |
| 12.9 | 0% | 3.7 | 10% | 9.8 | 0% | 107.1 | 0% | 165.0 | 0% | ||||||
| 5.5 | 0% | 33.0 | 92% | 34.9 | 92% | 61.9 | 92% | 297.5 | 4% | ||||||
| 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||
| 40–59 | 1.4 | 18,492.2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18,463.4 | 0% | 4.2 | 18,459.3 | 0% | 6.3 | 18,314.3 | 0% | 0.6 | 17,894.1 | 0% |
| 32.9 | 0% | 4.0 | 0% | 6.5 | 0% | 125.5 | 0% | 229.7 | 0% | ||||||
| 14.9 | 0% | 72.1 | 0% | 73.7 | 0% | 99.5 | 0% | 414.3 | 38% | ||||||
| 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.8 | |||||||||||
| 60–79 | 1.2 | 13,383.4 | 56% | 0.9 | 13,363.9 | 56% | 3.2 | 13,362.3 | 56% | 6.3 | 13,292.3 | 56% | 0.7 | 13,060.0 | 56% |
| 31.3 | 56% | 2.5 | 0% | 3.2 | 0% | 60.6 | 56% | 126.5 | 56% | ||||||
| 9.0 | 56% | 52.7 | 0% | 53.5 | 0% | 65.0 | 0% | 222.2 | 0% | ||||||
| 8.4 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 14.1 | 23.4 | |||||||||||
| >79 | 2.7 | 4,408.6 | 100% | 0.4 | 4,381.2 | 100% | 1.8 | 4,380.6 | 100% | 6.2 | 4,353.9 | 100% | 0.8 | 4,248.3 | 100% |
| 22.8 | 100% | 1.9 | 0% | 1.9 | 26% | 23.4 | 100% | 57.9 | 100% | ||||||
| 0.6 | 100% | 38.3 | 0% | 38.8 | 0% | 41.6 | 0% | 95.2 | 100% | ||||||
| 10.0 | 20.6 | 20.8 | 23.0 | 40.7 | |||||||||||